Tag: The Fed
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All Posts - Casey Stubbs - Chris Pulver - David Trainer - Graham Lindman - Geof Smith - Nate Tucci - Jeffry Turnmire - ProsperityPub
Politics are steering the market — again
China rhetoric, shutdown chess, Powell sound bites — price chopped on headlines. Geof Smith tells us: cut size, cap risk, and let the close confirm before pressing any view.
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Powell opens his mouth… and the market marches lower
Powell’s midday comments on hiring, spending, and valuations sent stocks lower, while Trump’s UN blast and Russia’s gasoline ban pushed oil and gas higher.
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Silver vs. Gold After a Rate Cut
Silver often outpaces gold after a Fed rate cut — but only with confirmation. Geof Smith explains how to use SLV with smart structure, timing, and defined risk.
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Weekly Wrap-Up: Quadruple Witching, Metals Rising, and What’s Next for the Fed
Quadruple witching hit as metals surged and the market digested Fed cuts. Next week brings housing, manufacturing, and durable goods data.
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When Mortgage Rates Drop, Stocks Can Rip — Here’s Why (and What to Watch)
A drop in mortgage rates can act like a mini-stimulus — boosting housing, freeing up cash, and lifting stocks. Here’s what the team’s watching to confirm the next move.
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California’s oil problem — and the Fed hangover
California’s pushback on fossil fuels is now colliding with reality, while strong data keeps traders second-guessing the Fed after this week’s cut.
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The Rational Trader: Cracker Barrel, Darden, and a Fed Cut
JD highlights two restaurant trades — Cracker Barrel and Darden Restaurants — and wraps with the Fed’s 25 bps rate cut, which gave markets a pop before fading.
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Fed cuts rates — markets whip on the news
The Fed cut rates a quarter point, hinting at more to come. Stocks slid, gold spiked, bonds rallied, and Powell’s press conference could shift the story again.
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The Rational Trader: When Good News Turns Bad: A SPY Call Spread Trade
JD explains how a strong retail sales report became “bad news” for the market — and how he played it with a SPY 660/661 call debit spread for a 10% gain.
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Gold’s steady at highs ahead of Fed Day
Gold’s steady at highs, stocks faded on strong retail sales, and crude rallied on demand hopes. Tomorrow’s Fed decision is the real test.
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The Rational Trader: Fading the Melt-Up With a SPY Put Spread
JD faded Monday’s “melt-up” with a SPY put debit spread, buying the 661 put and selling the 660 put for $0.44, and closed it for a 70% gain.
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Natural Gas Is Down 70%, But Are Your Bills?
Natural gas is down 70% since 2022, but utility bills aren’t. Add in hotter CPI, cooler PPI, and Fed rate cuts ahead — here’s Geof’s take on today’s market.
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