Beef Prices Are Surging (told you so?)

by Geof Smith | May 13, 2025

Hey folks,

Exactly two weeks ago, I warned that beef prices were likely heading higher — even before grilling season kicked in.

At the time, we were looking at a 75-year low in U.S. cattle herds, plus news that the U.S. might restrict Mexican beef imports due to a screw worm outbreak in livestock.

Well… now the market’s catching up.

This week, feeder cattle futures are on the move, and it’s not just a random bounce. It’s a direct response to the growing pressure on beef supply chains — exactly the scenario I said could unfold.

The screw worm is a destructive parasite that spreads fast and hits ranchers hard.

And with herds already thin, any disruption — especially one involving cross-border imports — is going to hit prices quickly.

But this story’s bigger than just steak.

Higher beef prices feed into inflation, especially the food-at-home category that hits consumers directly.

And inflation doesn’t happen in a vacuum — it influences how the Fed approaches rate policy, how much money consumers spend elsewhere, and what shows up in the next CPI report.

So yes, this is about cattle.

But it’s also about inflation, consumer confidence, and the ripple effects of a supply chain that’s already been stretched for two years straight.

Bottom line? The move in cattle isn’t noise — it’s a signal. And I’ll keep tracking where it goes from here.

I just covered this and more in my free bi-weekly Market Radar session.