Hey folks,
I’ve been staring at this tape all morning — and here’s what I see:
A market that doesn’t know what it wants.
We’re trading in a tight, sideways range today, with no conviction and no real direction.
Most of the major indexes are stuck inside the first 30 minutes’ range from this morning — a classic sign that nobody wants to take a side ahead of tomorrow’s news.
Here’s why that first 30 minutes of the day matters:
It sets the tone. That early range often acts like a box — and unless price breaks out above or below it, we’re just chopping around.
Right now, that box is holding. Traders aren’t pushing. Volume’s light. It’s a waiting game.
And what are they waiting for? Thursday’s data dump.
As I mentioned on yesterday’s Market Radar it’ll be a heavy, heavy morning of economic data and jaw flapping by Fed Chair Powell…
And it all happens tomorrow morning before markets open.
At 8:30 a.m. tomorrow, we get a flood of market-moving reports:
- PPI – Producer Price Index, which gives us a read on wholesale inflation (the prices the people you buy from are paying, which eventually get passed on to you)
- Retail Sales – This measures how much money consumers are spending in stores and online. It’s one of the best gauges of real-world economic activity — and if it’s too hot or too cold, it can swing the market because it affects everything from company earnings to inflation expectations to the likelihood that the Fed will raise or lower rates at their next meeting.
- Philly Fed Index – Short for the Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s Manufacturing Index. It’s a snapshot of how manufacturers in the Mid-Atlantic region are doing — and since manufacturing often moves ahead of the rest of the economy, traders watch it closely for early warning signs of a broader slowdown or recovery.
- Weekly Jobless Claims – This is the number of people filing for unemployment benefits. When claims are rising, it can mean the labor market is weakening — and when they’re falling, it suggests the job market is strong. Either outcome can move the market depending on what the Fed wants to see next.
- …and don’t forget the speech from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell right after.
That’s what I call a 30-minute gauntlet.
And it’s not just the number of reports — it’s how sensitive this market is to every single datapoint.
After CPI came in light on Tuesday, the bulls are hoping for follow-through. But any surprise tomorrow could swing things fast.
One more thing: the Nasdaq is doing most of the work today to keep the indexes afloat — and it’s clinging to one very specific line: its year-to-date open.
That’s a psychological level. If we drop back below it, it could change the tone for tech stocks — and the broader tape — in a big way.
So yes… today’s been slow. But don’t let the quiet fool you… tomorrow should open the floodgates.
I’ll be breaking down all the data plus the market’s reaction live in tomorrow’s Market Radar at 2pm Eastern.
Click here to register your spot — it’s totally free.
Stay sharp,
—Geof
P.S. Have you heard about what these four guys have up their sleeve?
