Hey folks,
I’m down in Ponte Vedra Beach this week, teaching a live trading class with my buddy Tom Busby. We’ve got a great group, and between the charts, setups, and Q&A, Tom’s keeping us busy — so I’ll keep this note short and to the point.
This week’s market action was all about economic data that came in worse than expected — specifically, the S&P Global PMI and ISM manufacturing numbers. Both showed weakness.
And how did the market react?
It rallied.
Why? Because we’re right back to the old routine: bad news = potential rate cuts.
That’s the narrative. If the economy’s slowing, maybe the Fed gets dovish. Maybe we get cheaper money. Maybe the party continues.
I’m not buying it.
The Fed’s already said they’re in no rush to cut — especially with inflation still hanging around. So if you’re counting on that pivot, I’d be careful. It’s all just hope and headlines at this point.
Meanwhile, gold is pushing higher. It’s back above 3400, and the next level to watch is 3450. If it breaks out from there, we could get another leg up.
If not, we might see a healthy pullback. Either way, it’s been one of the strongest things on my screen.
When markets are acting irrational, I focus on what’s leading — and right now, that’s gold.
So while everyone else is squinting at economic reports and trying to guess what Powell will say next, I’m watching what actually matters: Price.
It’s always the final word.
Stay sharp,
—Geof
P.S. Twenty minutes in the morning could get you on the right track to targeting daily income. See what I mean here.
