🚨 We’ll be live at 10 a.m. ET 🚨
I wasn’t planning on joining Opening Playbook today… until Jeffry called and told me about the $49,000 loss that completely changed his trading strategy. He’s breaking down the daily compounding philosophy born from that loss — and how it built his 1% Club approach. You need to hear this [tap to join us for Opening Playbook]
I don’t usually make weekend predictions.
Actually, I don’t trade over the weekends at all — too much can happen when the market is closed and I’m not in the business of betting on headlines I can’t control.
But this past Friday, I said something that turned out to be pretty spot-on.
During the Closing Playbook with Kane, I mentioned that if someone had to make a bet on the weekend, they’d probably have to bet that the market was going to bounce up, not down.
And sure enough, the market ripped on Monday morning — gapping up significantly right at the open.
Now, before you think I’ve got some crystal ball, let me explain what was actually going on here. Because it wasn’t about prediction — it was about understanding the structure of the market at that moment.
Why the Setup Favored a Bounce
Heading into the weekend, we dipped below the moving averages for a bit, which looked bearish on the surface. But that signal was weaker than usual because the broader environment was anything but normal.
We were in an intraday high-volatility environment — one of the reasons I was being a little more careful — and in that kind of climate, continuation is often less reliable than it appears.
Add to that the fact that we’ve had back-and-forth movement for weeks, with price action being pushed around by everything from headlines to technical triggers to liquidity flows. When the market is being pulled in all directions like that, moves lose their follow-through. You get noise instead of momentum.
So when we found ourselves sitting at the bottom of the zone on Friday — right at a key support area — that mattered more than the brief dip under moving averages. In a choppy environment, support becomes more of a magnet than a launchpad for a breakdown.
There is also a structural piece here that’s easy to overlook. When you have thousands of sessions in a trend, levels become a lot more tradable because the data is deep and the behavior is established.
But when you only have a few dozen sessions defining a range, those levels don’t carry the same weight. You have to treat them almost like opposite trades, recognizing that the setup behaves differently depending on how mature the structure is.
How It Played Out
Monday morning proved the point. Pretty much everything moved up in unison, with a burst of momentum right out of the gate. We jumped right back into the mixed trend, exactly as the technical setup suggested we would.
I had everyone grab some profit on the weekend trade, but I should have grabbed a lot more. We could have really juiced out some gains if we’d held longer. But that’s the nature of high volatility — you manage the trade that’s in front of you, not the one you wish you had.
The bigger takeaway is this: Understanding volatility, zone structure, and the maturity of the trend will always give you a clearer sense of probability than any headline or gut feeling ever could. When you learn how these pieces interact, the market stops feeling random.
Now don’t forget to join us at 10 a.m. ET weekdays for Opening Playbook, and at 3:30 p.m. ET Closing Playbook!
Nate Tucci
Tucci Trades
You can also follow along and join the conversation for real-time analysis, trade ideas, market insights and more in my official Telegram channel!
Important Note: No one from the New Money Crew team or Tucci Trades will ever contact you directly on Telegram.
*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
