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You know what’s interesting about markets?
Sometimes the thing everyone’s waiting for just doesn’t happen.
I got a question the other day about whether the U.S. dollar is going to weaken significantly in the second half of this year or heading into 2027. And honestly, it’s something we haven’t really dug into lately.
But here’s what I do remember…
Early in president Donald Trump’s term, there was a lot of discussion about locking in deals with a stronger dollar, then allowing it to weaken. That was the narrative. Get things done while the dollar’s strong, then let it slide to help exports and competitiveness.
But that conversation? It’s gone quiet.
And that matters — especially if you’ve been watching gold and silver.
The Double Whammy Facing Precious Metals
Here’s the thing most traders miss when they’re looking at gold or silver right now.
It’s not just one headwind. It’s two.
Rate hikes already suppress gold and silver prices — that’s Economics 101. Higher rates make holding non-yielding assets like precious metals less attractive. And the rate situation really is the big picture here.
It’s a major part of the broader macro environment that keeps putting pressure on anything that can’t generate yield.
But on top of that, a continued strong dollar makes it really hard for gold and silver to get out of their own way.
Think about it: Gold is priced in dollars. So when the dollar strengthens, gold becomes more expensive for foreign buyers. Demand softens. And even if everything else lines up perfectly for a rally, that dollar strength acts like a ceiling.
Right now, traders are seeing the S&P 500 push into zones that suggest more sideways chop than anything else. We’ve tagged those 720 levels on the index, but the overall sentiment is caution. That uncertainty keeps equity markets jumpy — and keeps precious metals pinned.
Where’s All the Dollar Weakness Talk?
You might remember all the chatter a while back about alternatives to the dollar. Bitcoin was going to replace it. The BRICS nations were launching their own currency. The dollar was doomed.
Yeah … about that.
Both the Bitcoin discussion and BRICS currency talk have died down during the recent risk-off period. When markets get shaky, people run back to the dollar — every single time. That’s the part traders forget. The dollar may not be perfect, but it’s the safe harbor everyone returns to when things get unstable.
So if you’re waiting for the dollar to collapse and gold to moon because of it, you might be waiting a while.
That doesn’t mean gold and silver can’t have their moment. But right now, they’re fighting an uphill battle with two major structural headwinds
. Until one of those shifts — either rates come down meaningfully or the dollar weakens — it’s going to be tough for precious metals to build sustainable momentum.
Just something to keep in mind if you’re eyeing those shiny assets.
Now don’t forget to join us at 10 a.m. ET weekdays for Opening Playbook, and at 3:30 p.m. ET Closing Playbook!
Nate Tucci
Tucci Trades
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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.Â
