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It’s the end of the month and quarter, so it’s time to do some rebalancing — expect noise and volatility. We’ll cover that, the ADD close to 50/50 for several days, nonfarm payrolls and more [tap to join us for the Daily Profit Plan]!
I’ve been adjusting my entire approach lately, and I want to walk you through exactly why…
We’re sitting in a spot where July typically shows solid bullish momentum, but August, September and October historically deliver far weaker returns. That’s a reality I’m not willing to ignore, especially with everything else on the horizon.
I watched the market fall 10% in two months earlier this year. I watched it fall 10% in two weeks in summer 2024. And we all saw the 20% correction in 2025. Those aren’t hypothetical scenarios — they’re recent reminders of how quickly sentiment can shift and why I’m prioritizing protection over aggression right now.
So instead of chasing premium or loading up on near-term expirations, I’m stacking inventory in November and December and avoiding August, September and October. I’d rather sacrifice some premium and tie up capital longer than get blindsided by a double-digit correction in the next 60 to 90 days.
The Macro Risks That Have Me on High Alert
This isn’t just about seasonal weakness. We’ve got midterm elections coming up — easily one of the biggest unknowns for markets. On top of that, a new Fed chair brings a new regime, and markets have a long history of testing fresh leadership with volatility.
I’m also watching the bond market closely because it tends to sniff out pressure before equities do. When long-term yields start drifting lower, that’s often the bond market signaling that something under the surface is easing or tightening in ways stocks haven’t priced in yet.
In an environment already vulnerable to seasonal weakness and political uncertainty, those shifts matter.
That’s why I’m targeting 10-15% downside buffers for new trades. When I structure positions, I’m mapping out what a 10% drop looks like, what a 15% drop looks like, and where the strike needs to sit to keep the trade safe.
For example, pushing the buffer toward 15% placed one of my recent trades near the 6,325 SPX level, which gives me enough room for sideways, choppy or even volatile price action without forcing me into defensive adjustments.
Conservative Positioning Over Aggressive Plays
We still have some positions in August and September from earlier in the year when prices were much lower. But with the market trading above 7,000, I’m not taking new expirations in August, September or October.
This mirrors what we did earlier this year when we stacked inventory in January and skipped February, March and April because the risk-reward just wasn’t worth it.
This is also why I’m limiting how many short-term directional trades I put on. If we stack a bunch of trades that only work if the market moves higher and then the market rolls over, those become losing trades all at once. I’m not interested in loading the portfolio with positions that rely on perfect timing in a window historically known for anything but stability.
I’d rather be conservative and wrong than aggressive and caught off guard. I have a feeling the market could hand us a strange, fast 10% correction or more, and I’d rather be prepared for that than react to it after the fact.
I’ll see you in the markets.
Chris Pulver
Chris Pulver TradingÂ
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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.Â
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