🚨 I’ll be live at 10 a.m. ET🚨
Nate wasn’t joining Opening Playbook today until I called him… and revealed the $49,000 loss that completely changed the way I trade, and the daily compounding philosophy that emerged from it — ultimately leading to the creation of my 1% Club approach [tap to join us for Opening Playbook]!
Most traders spend their time trying to predict where the market is headed next.
Up or down? Bullish or bearish? Rally or crash?
Then they turn on CNBC, scroll through social media and listen to 15 different people give them 20 different answers. Not very helpful…
I take a different approach.
Instead of trying to predict exactly where the market will go, I look for the places it is extremely unlikely to go.
That might sound like a small distinction, but it changes the entire trade.
Let the Bell Curve Do the Work
Markets generally move within a bell curve. Roughly 68% of price action stays within one standard deviation of the average. About 95% stays within two standard deviations.
Move out to three standard deviations, and you’re covering approximately 99.7% of expected price action.
In plain English, a move beyond that third standard deviation is possible — but it’s a true statistical outlier.
That gives us something useful.
Rather than asking whether the S&P 500 will finish higher or lower today, I can ask a more practical question…
How far would the market have to move for this trade to lose?
Then I compare that level with the market’s normal range.
Suppose the market’s already climbed well above a three-standard-deviation boundary. For it to fall all the way through that level before the end of the session, we would need an unusually large reversal.
Can it happen? Of course. Anything can happen in the market.
But there’s a big difference between something being possible and something being probable. Traders tend to confuse the two, usually right before donating money to someone on the other side of a trade they just took.
Trade the Range, Not the Headline
This approach isn’t about predicting the future with perfect accuracy. It’s about identifying an enormous historical range and structuring a trade that can succeed as long as the market stays inside it.
No crystal ball. No hot tip. No need to guess which headline will send the market flying around next.
Just probability, price movement and a clearly defined line in the sand.
The takeaway is simple: Stop asking only where the market might go. Start asking where it is highly unlikely to go.
That may not make for exciting television or big, bold predictions, but excitement is not the goal.
The goal is to put the probabilities on your side, control the risk and let the math do the heavy lifting.
P.S. I’m going to show everyone how I trade a strategy around this exact market machination at 7 p.m. ET on Sunday. If it sounds interesting to you, please don’t hesitate to save a seat and join us!
Jeffry Turnmire
Jeffry Turnmire Trading
I host my Morning Monster livestream at 9:15 a.m. ET each weekday on YouTube, and then 30 Minutes of Awesome at 5 p.m. ET each Tuesday!
Please check out my channel and hit that Subscribe button!
You can also follow along and join the conversation for real-time analysis, trade ideas, market insights and more!
- Telegram:https://t.me/+6TdDE7-F6GlhMmJh
Important Note: No one from the ProsperityPub team or Jeffry Turnmire Trading will ever message you directly on Telegram.
I’m just a regular dude in Knoxville, Tennessee: a husband, father, civil engineer, urban farmer, maker and trader.
I’ve been at this trading thing with real money for 20-plus years, and started paper trading over 35 years ago. I have a knack for making some epic predictions that just may very well come true. Why share them? Because I like helping other people — it’s the Eagle Scout in me.
*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
P.S. What Happens 2 Hours Before the Close?
There are no guarantees when it comes to trading…
Virtually anything can happen. You know this, I know this, we all know this…
One tragic event…
One earthquake…
One wrongly launched missile strike could trigger a cataclysmic event that could crush even the most stable stock.
But then, in one small corner of the market…
I’ve found a pattern that’s repeated every single day, no matter what, for at least two decades.
It didn’t matter who sat in the White House…
Or what our foreign policy was…
Or what new evil gimmick the deep pockets on Wall Street were up to.
This little-known pattern has played out two hours before the close, every single time.
Seven months ago, I began trying out a new approach to playing this pattern for a shot at a 1% payout per day.
The result?
A 100% win rate on more than 172 trades so far.
[ON A $10K STARTING STAKE]
Making this my most consistent path yet to Income Independence.
The question now is…
Would you like to get on the same path with me?
Yes? Then you’re in luck.
Because right after celebrating our nation’s independence this Saturday…
I’ll be going live on July 5 to point you in the right direction of your own Income Independence.
Of course, I can’t make trading guarantees here, but…
We develop tools and strategies to the best of our ability but no one can guarantee the future.There is always a risk of loss when trading, and past performance is not indicative of future results. From 10/9/25 – 6/29/26 on 172 live trades taken with real money, the win rate is 100%, 1.04% average return, with an average hold time of less than 2 hours.
