If you’ve ever thought about gold as that steady, boring safe-haven asset that just quietly holds value while everything else crashes — I’ve got news for you.
That’s not what gold is at all.
Sure, it gets that reputation. But when I look at the actual behavior of gold over time, it’s actually a super aggressive growth asset with brutal corrections along the way.
Most people don’t realize this. They think gold is this safe, steady place to park money. But the reality? It rips higher in massive runs, then corrects just as violently.
So if you’re sizing your gold trades like it’s some low-risk hedge — you might be in for a surprise when those corrections hit.
But here’s the good news: I don’t think we’re heading toward a brutal correction in gold anytime soon, even if we slow down on the gas pedal.
Why Gold Stays Supported for Now
The key is the rate-cut cycle.
As long as the Fed is cutting rates — or even just holding them lower — I don’t think we’re going to see a full gold correction while the rate-cut cycle is on.
And this isn’t just about gold itself. Lower rates create a strong backdrop for the miners too.
When the environment is this favorable, companies tied to gold tend to put up strong numbers. That’s exactly why VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) has been working its way back toward all-time highs — and why I still like the positioning of Newmont (NEM).
As long as gold avoids a full flush, these companies are set up well for several more quarters.
That’s a really important distinction.
Gold might not continue smashing all-time highs every week. It could consolidate. It could chop around.
But a full flush? I wouldn’t expect that right now.
And that matters for how we trade around it.
Take GDX, for example.
Stocks inside the ETF still have room to run in this environment, and honestly, I wish I was still holding onto that trade from Q4 because the move since then has been exactly what you’d want to see when gold stays supported.
How to Think About Gold Going Forward
So what’s the takeaway?
First, stop thinking of gold as a boring safe haven. It’s not.
It’s a momentum asset that can move violently in both directions.
Second, understand the conditions that support it. Right now, the rate-cut cycle is that condition.
And it doesn’t just help gold — it helps miners and the companies leveraged to gold’s strength.
But third, be ready for the eventual correction.
Because when it comes, it won’t be gentle. That’s just the nature of the asset.
For now, though, the setup still looks solid.
Just make sure you’re sizing your trades accordingly — and not treating gold like it’s going to sit there and behave.
Because it won’t.
Now don’t forget to join us at 10 a.m. ET weekdays for Opening Playbook, and at 3:30 p.m. ET Closing Playbook!
Nate Tucci
Tucci Trades
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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
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