In today’s article I’m looking at Tesla (TSLA) closely because something stubborn is happening on the chart — and I’m still holding a significant position in it.
TSLA keeps clinging to its Daily Roadmap line, and it’s been flirting with breaking lower for days now.
The action has been choppy, indecisive and frustrating if you expected a clean bounce and continuation higher. At this point, it might look best if we go ahead and flush down to about $380.
I’m starting to think the cleanest path forward might actually involve one more move down to that area. Sometimes the market has to finish a correction properly before it can move on.
Why the Correction Might Need Another Leg Down
We’re still holding a higher low from November, which is technically bullish. But it’s kind of been sideways choppy corrective action — not the kind of clean retracement that typically leads to a strong resumption of the uptrend.
The pullback went deeper than I initially expected. I was hoping TSLA would hold at the top of the Roadmap line and move higher from there, but it just hasn’t been able to do it.
We got the dip and it looked like we were setting up for the rip, but then it pulled back again and is now holding near the limits of this pullback range.
Here’s the key level I’m watching: If we get a daily close below below Monday’s candle around $400, that’s probably indicative we’re coming on down to $380. That move would likely complete the correction and clear out the messy sideways action we’ve been stuck in.
How I’m Managing My Tesla Position
Despite everything happening on the chart, I haven’t changed anything in my position. I still hold a substantial number of TSLA shares, and I have March 20 calls sold against most of it. That covered call strategy generates income while I wait for this correction to finish playing out.
The fact that I’m holding through potential downside to $380 says something important — my longer-term outlook on TSLA remains bullish. But I’m also realistic about what the chart is signaling right now. If TSLA needs to touch $380 to complete this correction and set up for a legitimate move higher, then so be it.
I’ll be watching that daily close closely in the coming sessions.
Jeffry Turnmire
Jeffry Turnmire Trading
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I’m just a regular dude in Knoxville, Tennessee: a husband, father, civil engineer, urban farmer, maker and trader.
I’ve been at this trading thing with real money for 20-plus years, and started paper trading over 35 years ago. I have a knack for making some epic predictions that just may very well come true. Why share them? Because I like helping other people — it’s the Eagle Scout in me.
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P.S. Wall Street’s Selling While Retail Is Buying — Are You Watching?
My take? Approach the market with caution over the next month or so.
Your setup should be one that doesn’t keep you stuck in the market for days on end — and I’ve got one just like that you should see here…
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We develop tools and strategies to the best of our ability, but no one can guarantee the future. There is always a risk of loss when trading past performance is not indicative of future results. From 7/10/24 – 2/20/26 the result was a 74% win rate with an average hold time of less than 24 hours on the underlying stock.
