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I’ll be honest — even with the market taking a breather recently, I’m more excited about what’s ahead than I’ve been in months.
Why? Because I’ve been analyzing three separate historical patterns, and all three are converging at the exact same time. When you see that kind of alignment in the data, you pay attention.
So today I’ll walk you through what I’m seeing.
Pattern 1: The Dot-Com Rally Playbook
I’ve been mapping how our current AI rally compares to the dot-com rally back in the 90s, and the correlation has been near perfect. October through February — chop, chop, chop. Then March and April brought a sell-off going into May. After that? Red-hot.
That’s not just a vague resemblance. We’re talking about a pattern that’s tracked with remarkable precision. And if history continues to rhyme the way it has been, we’re positioned right at the inflection point before strength accelerates.
But that’s just the first pattern.
Two More Patterns Stacking Up
The second pattern I’m watching involves the Fed chair transition. Right now we’re a little under a month out from the new head of the Fed coming in, and historically this is a very bullish window for the next 30 to 45 days. The typical pattern shows a little consolidation followed by bullish movement.
And then there’s the third pattern — which might be the most statistically compelling of all.
Look, we just saw the VIX collapse, and when you step back and look at how the market tends to respond after that, the numbers are really pretty incredible. One month later, the market’s up 86% of the time. Two months out? Still 86%.
Three months out? Same story.
And then over the next year, you’re looking at markets being higher 93% of the time, with the data showing that in this sample, the market was up 100% of the time overall. And this has only happened around 15 times or so — maybe a few more.
Let that sink in for a moment. We’re not talking about weak probabilities here. These are strong, consistent historical tendencies.
Even though we’re taking this breather right now — which we kind of anticipated — we haven’t seen a massive dump, and we haven’t seen the value switch back. That tells me the underlying strength is still intact.
When three separate historical patterns all point in the same direction at the same time, that’s not coincidence — that’s confluence. And that’s exactly what I look for when I’m building conviction around a setup or a directional bias.
So while others might be getting nervous about short-term chop, I’m focusing on what the data is telling me. And right now, the data is saying the same thing from three different angles: stay bullish.
Graham Lindman
Graham Lindman Trading
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