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Sometimes I get lucky, and I called this one.
When I said Intel (INTC) was primed to break out toward multi-decade highs, I wasn’t talking about a vague hunch. Intel’s last major peak came back in August 2000 near the $75 range, and since then the stock spent years grinding sideways and then lower in what I define as a long-term downtrend — lower highs and lower lows on the monthly chart from 2000 through 2025.
If you overlay those monthly closing prices, the slope is obvious. That long base is what set up this entire move.
And yes, the stock just made a kind of vertical surge we haven’t seen since the stock’s early era. That’s not nostalgia — it’s a fact you can see directly on the price chart.
But even with a setup this clean, I still took profits and stepped aside.
The Setup That Took 25 Years to Play Out
Here’s exactly what I saw.
After that 2000 peak and the long decline that followed, Intel finally broke through the upper boundary of its multi-decade downtrend earlier this year. To set my upside target, I used the confluence of a long-term chart resistance zone and a Fibonacci extension that lined up around $105.
When two independent analytical methods point to the same level, I treat that as a high-conviction target.
So when the stock accelerated into that zone faster than the historical climb rate would normally allow, the risk-reward changed instantly. The chart went from a steady recovery to a near-vertical climb — that’s when you stop hoping for more and start protecting capital.
Why I’m Not Sticking Around for the Victory Lap
Now let me be clear about something.
When I say we’re in the AI bubble, that’s an opinion — but it’s an opinion informed by stretched valuations, parabolic price behavior and sentiment levels that look a lot like past mania phases.
And when I say Intel was the poster child during the dot-com era, that’s mainly an analogy to illustrate how sentiment can elevate certain names far beyond fundamentals.
That doesn’t make the move illegitimate. It just means I manage risk differently when things start going vertical.
I didn’t step aside because I doubt Intel. I stepped aside because capital allocation is about opportunity cost, not squeezing every last dollar out of a euphoric run. When a move hits my target and does it early, I redeploy into setups with better asymmetry rather than overstay a trade that’s already delivered.
And remember, sometimes the smartest move isn’t catching the top — it’s knowing when you’ve caught enough of the move to get while the gettin’ is good. That’s my approach, and my decision reflects my own risk tolerance. Markets can shift quickly, especially after steep runs.
Intel gave me the move I was looking for. I took it. No hesitation. No regrets. On to the next.
Jeffry Turnmire
Jeffry Turnmire Trading
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I’m just a regular dude in Knoxville, Tennessee: a husband, father, civil engineer, urban farmer, maker and trader.
I’ve been at this trading thing with real money for 20-plus years, and started paper trading over 35 years ago. I have a knack for making some epic predictions that just may very well come true. Why share them? Because I like helping other people — it’s the Eagle Scout in me.
*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
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