🚨 I’ll be live at with Alex at 2:30 p.m. ET🚨
We’ll cover what market setups are triggering during this short, volatile week, I’ve got a breakdown of what causes a stock to sharply bounce back after a massive overnight earnings drop, the specific market flows to watch if the government’s peace deal negotiations backfire and more [tap to join us for Profit Panel]
There are days when the market simply doesn’t add up. You see headlines flying around about peace deals, geopolitical flare-ups or supply shocks, and then the tape moves in the exact opposite direction.
It’s a good reminder that markets often behave in ways that make zero sense if you’re only watching the news.
You’d think after bombing events near the Strait of Hormuz, crude oil would be ripping higher and everything tied to energy would follow. That’s the standard headline playbook anyway.
But that’s not what happened.
Crude oil stayed relatively flat on the session. Yes, it’s still up from recent lows, but nothing dramatic happened. Meanwhile, gasoline got hammered, falling nearly $0.12 per gallon.
That’s not a small move, and it’s a perfect example of how price action exposes where the real volatility actually exists.
As we discussed in real time in the Profit Panel, the better trade wasn’t crude oil at all. In hindsight, buying puts on United States Gasoline Fund (UGA) made far more sense than targeting United States Oil Fund (USO).
Sometimes the best trade isn’t the headline commodity. It’s the correlated market where the actual volatility is showing up.
Divergences like these can signal sector rotation, hedging flows or institutions positioning ahead of broader moves. We don’t always know the exact reason immediately, but those are the moments worth paying attention to.
The Gold Market’s Acting Just as Strange
Now flip over to metals and it gets even stranger.
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) and iShares Silver Trust (SLV) were both lower, which normally pressures mining stocks too.
But instead, gold and silver miners rallied.
So the underlying commodities weakened while the equities caught bids anyway. That’s not normal behavior.
And you see these disconnects everywhere if you’re paying attention. Markets constantly produce moments where price action completely ignores the narrative traders expect.
That’s why the “tape over narrative” rule matters so much.
Let your trades follow price action, not media narratives. When those two things diverge, opportunity often shows up.
And this is where discipline becomes critical.
As Alex likes to remind the room, “Don’t chase stuff. Find the good setups and wait for your spot in the tape.”
Partial positions can also help manage FOMO while the market sorts itself out. The goal isn’t to be the fastest trader in the room. It’s to be the most accurate.
Don’t Trust the Headlines
Here’s the kicker.
I’ve seen reports claiming Brent crude is above $100 and could stay there for years. The problem is I can’t actually find Brent crude trading above $100 anywhere.
Either the data is lagging, old headlines are being recycled or people are simply repeating bad information.
That’s why the narrative doesn’t always match the tape.
When miners rally while metals fall, crude stays flat while gasoline collapses and headlines scream one thing while charts show another, that’s where opportunity hides.
You just have to be willing to tune out the noise and trade what’s actually happening instead of what you think should be happening.
Dislocations between narrative and price action shouldn’t confuse you. They should grab your attention.
Geof Smith
Geof Smith Trading
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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
P.S. I’m revealing the next set of Wall Street’s Sleeper Cell orders
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Now I’ve traced these sleeper cell orders to certain stocks set to surge this over the next few days
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