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You remember a year ago when everyone was losing their minds over egg prices, right?
Eggs were hitting around $7 per dozen. It felt like every grocery trip showed something had snapped in the system.
Fast forward to today and the situation has flipped.
Prices have fallen so far that producers are now the ones complaining. Margins have evaporated.
That’s how fast these markets can turn.
I used to buy those 60-count boxes at Walmart for about $5.56. With three kids at home, they’d be gone in a week.
Now those same boxes run around $7 to $8. That’s still well below the peak, but it’s uncomfortable for producers.
And for all the old claims about eggs being bad for you — no, you don’t get cholesterol from eating cholesterol. A lot of that was overblown.
This kind of swing isn’t unique to eggs. It’s a repeatable commodity cycle.
The Numbers Tell the Story
Right now, other food markets are starting to show similar pressure.
There’s a beef shortage pushing steak prices toward $30. Wheat crops have been hit by droughts that reduced yields.
Australia is also dealing with weather issues that are limiting exports. That tightens global wheat supply even further.
Then you’ve got fertilizer, which is a critical input across agriculture. Prices and availability have been volatile.
When input costs surge, producers either cut production or pass costs through. Either way, the imbalance shows up downstream.
Consumers feel it too. I just spent $60 on gas the other day. I’d love to see oil prices cool off.
These moves don’t happen in isolation. They ripple through households, producers and traders differently.
Why This Matters for Traders
If you understand how these cycles form, you can position ahead of the move instead of reacting late.
The key is recognizing when sentiment has stretched too far in one direction.
Neither extreme lasts. That’s where opportunity shows up.
The lesson here isn’t just about eggs.
It’s about how quickly narratives and price structures can shift across commodity markets.
Today’s crisis becomes tomorrow’s glut.
If you’re paying attention, you can stay ahead of the turn instead of getting caught on the wrong side of it.
Geof Smith
Geof Smith Trading
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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
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