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S&P 500 (SPX) just touched new all-time highs around 7539, capping off an absolutely relentless rally. We’re talking about a 19.5% move higher without any meaningful pause.
And you know what? I’m not chasing it.
I understand we’re in a strong bull market and that momentum has been incredible. But after eight or nine consecutive weeks of nonstop bullish action, I have to question how much longer this can continue without a healthy pullback.
At the same time, we’re entering one of the most interesting market windows in years. Massive IPOs are preparing to hit the tape, including names like SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic.
This isn’t just about new listings. It’s a major shift in how capital moves, how innovation gets priced and how traders position around what could become the next technological era.
When you combine that kind of new supply with an AI-driven regime shift, volatility becomes almost inevitable. That’s why I’m deliberately stacking pending orders well below current prices and waiting for the market to come to me.
Positioning for the Inevitable Pullback
We’re currently bouncing between the 7500 and 7550 zone, and I believe we’re due for a correction. I’m focused on the 6600 zone, which represents roughly a 12.2% pullback from current levels.
That may sound aggressive, but after this kind of gap-up move, I actually think it’s a conservative margin of safety.
Beyond that, I’m also watching deeper technical layers. There’s a 23% to 30% retracement zone, along with a 38% retracement area that nearly aligns with previous all-time highs.
Those are meaningful levels where buyers often step back in, and I want to be positioned ahead of that rotation.
My spreads are simple: Risk-defined structures targeting $0.50 in credit on $10- to $15-wide strikes, with a built-in profit trap roughly $10 below the short strike. That setup gives me controlled risk, solid credit and meaningful cushion if the market finally exhales.
My Sept. 18 AM expirations are set at 6500/6490 and 6440/6425. Again, those levels are well out of the way. This is the kind of defensive positioning that can remain profitable even while the market keeps grinding higher.
I’m also not chasing fills. If a setup doesn’t offer at least $0.05 in credit, I let it sit. I’m essentially giving the market a $500 head start, and that patience keeps me out of trouble.
All April and May expirations remain on track to close as full winners. That’s why I’m comfortable staying disciplined instead of chasing vertical price action.
Patience Pays When Everyone Else Is Chasing
As these mega-IPOs hit the market, I expect money to rotate out of large-cap technology and into whatever shiny new object Wall Street decides to chase next. That kind of rotation often creates sharp and disorderly moves.
For option sellers positioned early and safely, that’s exactly the kind of environment you want.
We don’t need to predict the exact top. But we should recognize we’re already far beyond a normal extension, and markets don’t move straight up forever.
Could we still get an outsized bearish move? Of course. Anything is possible.
But the beauty of positioning 12% below current prices is that even in a volatile environment, probabilities remain solidly in our favor.
We don’t need perfection. We just need preparation.
I’ll keep playing defense, stacking pending orders at levels the market may need weeks to reach and staying patient while everyone else chases the final 2% of upside.
I’ll see you in the markets.
Chris Pulver
Chris Pulver Trading
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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
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Disclaimer: We develop tools and strategies to the best of our ability, but we can’t guarantee the future. There is always a risk of loss when trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The stated results are from live, published alerts between 8/26/24 and 5/20/25. The win rate has been 89.5% for the options, with an average return of 14.36% over a one-day hold period.
