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You know that trade you’re absolutely sure about?
The one that feels right in your gut, where everything lines up and you’re already thinking about sizing up because it looks perfect?
I need to tell you something about that feeling.
I recently took two separate losses on Walmart (WMT), and honestly, they were the trades I felt most comfortable with over the last couple of weeks. The setups looked clean, the thesis felt strong and yet both turned into big losers.
It’s the perfect reminder of a lesson traders end up learning repeatedly.
The Comfort Trap
The trades you feel best about don’t magically have a higher probability of working. Not compared to the setups you feel less emotional about that still meet your criteria and expectancy edge.
And if you’re an active trader with naturally high risk tolerance, the temptation becomes obvious. When conviction feels strong, it seems logical to size up aggressively.
But that rarely ends well.
The market doesn’t care how confident you are. My WMT example proves it. The trade I felt safest about ended up failing the hardest.
What makes this even more dangerous is when oversized conviction trades actually work. Ironically, winning on a reckless position can damage you more than losing because it reinforces bad behavior and increases the urge to repeat it with even more size next time.
That’s how traders slowly drift away from discipline without realizing it.
Why Discipline Beats Conviction
Systematic position sizing exists for a reason.
If a trade meets your criteria and offers positive expectancy, it deserves the same size whether it excites you or bores you. Your conviction doesn’t improve probability.
Here’s a simple way to frame it.
Even with a high probability setup, reward still matters. An 84% probability with a 30% ROI is only slightly positive. But an 84% probability with a 50% ROI becomes a completely different trade.
One setup is questionable. The other is outstanding. And none of that has anything to do with how strongly you feel about it.
The math of expectancy drives long-term results. Emotions don’t alter those numbers.
The market doesn’t adjust because you feel confident, nervous, excited or calm. It responds to order flow, positioning and probabilities.
The environment matters too. When the market is bullish, that’s when you press your advantage. When conditions weaken, you shift toward defense.
But those adjustments should come from data, not emotion. Let your system determine when you’re offensive or defensive — never your feelings.
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Nate Tucci
Tucci Trades
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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
P.S. What’s next for the market after 8 consecutive winning weeks?
If you’re one of those asking if the streak is coming to an end, then you’re asking the wrong question.
Instead of hunting the top, why not play the hand you’re dealt using my “win both ways” approach?
Get All the Details Right Here
Disclaimer: We develop tools and strategies to the best of our ability but no one can guarantee the future. There is always a risk of loss when trading. Past Performance is not indicative of future results. From 7/3/24 – 9/2/25 from the Live trades we have seen a 82.2% win rate on options with an average winner of 36.41% and an average return of winners and losers at 15.26% over an 8 day holding period.
