The price moved up through the neck line (light blue line), setting up a price target above the neck line equal to the distance of the move from the head to the neck.
It appears the crisis will be contained, but it won’t come without violent swings day-to-day. Where does that leave us? With sore necks from watching the market’s wild up-and-down fluctuations.
Right up to that point, stubborn inflation and an economy still showing signs of life were expected to force the Fed to continue its inflation fight. But then something broke.
Over the past few weeks I’ve referred to the scarcity of good quality setups as one of my guides. In the last two weeks my main take has been that the market was not ready for a new upswing, and chaotically bouncing around the Key Levels was more likely.
Each successive crisis or government imperative doubles the cost of bailing out the economy. And each bailout creates more dependence and fragility. It allows unavoidable risks to fester and grow.
This is the setup for the hyperinflationary crack up boom - skyrocketing stock prices alongside skyrocketing inflation - I’ve viewed as inevitable ever since the Federal Reserve abandoned any and all constraints on money supply back in 2008.
On one hand, bailing out the banks ostensibly saves us all from a terrible crisis. On the other hand, “Um, why are we bailing out these idiots who were so careless with our money??”
Now, I know it’s tempting to point to the usual suspects listed above. But they ultimately draw power from voters. Voters that never fail to fall for political schemes, solutions, pandering, and burden shifting.
Have stocks ceded the conch to options? Trading volume has flooded options markets, especially those suddenly infamous 0DTE contracts. We unpack this and more in this weeks Weekly Roundtable with Don Yocham.
Counting all U.S. Treasury’s bonds, notes and bills outstanding, the U.S. Government has $31 trillion in debt. But that’s only a sliver of the promises the government must keep or break.