Jobs Report Surge: Market Rally or Smoke and Mirrors?

by | Oct 4, 2024

It’s probably going to be a hot day in the markets.

I’m writing this right at the open, and the jobs report has just dropped.

working in a shop with tools and machinery, sparks flying wearing safety equipment

Jobs beat expectations by massive margins, coming in at 254,000 over a projected 150,000.

That’s a difference of (checks math) 104,000 or about a 70% beat of expectations.

And, unemployment is down to 4.1%.

You’d expect the markets to be really excited about this news, and, at present, the SPY is surging heading into the open.

bullish candlestick chart for SPY

This is good news for the economy. It’s a great sign for the U.S.

The only question is: is this number real?

It went largely ignored, but a few months ago, there was a shocking report that the executive branch had been consistently overreporting jobs numbers to the tune of nearly 1 million extra jobs over several months.

CHANGE IN JOBS FROM A YAER EARLIER, 2022-2024

It’s one of the strangest underreported instances of corruption I can remember.

Obviously, the positive reports help the Biden Administration. And the Biden Administration is giving the reports. So it’s a bit of an “inmates running the asylum” situation.

So it remains to be seen whether the current 254,000 number is real.

But in the short term, it won’t matter.

Expect the markets to rally into the close Friday.

Graham pointed out that it might be a good idea to short the bond market, as it should get hit hard by this news (especially as it might mean less aggressive rate cuts in the future).

But overall, it should be a great day in the markets.

Have fun out there!

To your prosperity,

Stephen

 

P.S. One sector you’ll want to pay close attention to in the buildup to the election is energy. Geof Smith has your complete gameplan for the #1 energy trade you should be focused on right now. Learn more about it here: https://prosperitypub.com/election

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