It’s Halloween here in the U.S.!
Which means the question on every trader’s mind is: Are we getting tricks or are we getting treats?
On the negative side, the market is poised to have its 3rd losing month in a row — something that hasn’t happened since March 2020.
Yikes.
Any positive momentum has been squelched lately, and the violent reversals have come in bulk.
However, that could change with some good news from the Fed on Wednesday.
Last time, Powell killed all the good vibes with his “higher for longer” chatter.
This time Powell has a chance to make up for that. If he hints at a delay in rising rates, we could finally see the seasonal bullishness that’s expected between October and December of this year.
One stock that looks ready for an explosion (if the Fed cooperates) is PayPal (PYPL).
It’s fallen quite a ways down from its highs around $300 a couple of years ago. And it’s still below the 30-week simple moving average:
But a break above $60 could be an early entry on a move up to $105.50 and beyond.
It will all come down to the Fed.
Are they giving out unripe apples or are they giving away giant Snickers?
We’ll keep an eye on it.
Happy trading,
— Scott Welsh
P.S. As a reminder, these plays are based on my longer-term Weinstein Stage Analysis method. The chart above uses weekly candles and a 30 week simple moving average. For details on this method, see my explanation on this Ask The Pros episode starting at timestamp 20:45.
