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Stop Guessing Direction and Use This Market Maker Metric Instead

by | May 22, 2026

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Most traders start earnings season by trying to predict what a stock will do. But building a strategy around guessing is a weak foundation.

Even if you think you know what might happen, relying on predictions creates unnecessary risk and inconsistency.

There’s a cleaner, more objective way to trade earnings — and it starts with a number that reflects what the options market already expects: the market maker move (MMM).

If you’re trading earnings with options, this is the most important metric you can use. It’s not a hunch or a forecast. It’s a calculation based on options pricing that tells you how much the market expects a stock to move.

Let me show you how I use it.

What the Market Maker Move Actually Tells You

You’ll see the MMM on platforms like tastytrade or thinkorswim. It’s typically expressed in dollars. For Nvidia (NVDA), the MMM recently sat around $13, meaning the options market expected about a $13 move in either direction after earnings.

And here’s where things get interesting: Six of the last seven NVDA earnings reactions have finished inside the MMM. Even more surprising, six of those seven moves were bearish — unusual for a stock with Nvidia’s reputation for explosive post-earnings action. That track record reinforces why the MMM is such a powerful benchmark.

If I can collect enough credit outside that expected move, I create a profit zone that simply requires the stock to behave normally instead of picking a direction. That’s the foundation of a neutral earnings trade like an iron condor.

But neutral doesn’t mean rigid. You can shape the structure to reflect what you see.

Shifting the Structure Based on Directional Bias

For example, if I have a small bearish lean, I shift the whole structure higher rather than centering it perfectly around the MMM. It stays a neutral trade — but with more room for error on the upside and less on the downside.

That’s helpful in situations where a stock might dip early, then recover. By sliding the profit zone upward, I’m giving myself space for that kind of bounce without abandoning the core neutral structure.

Risk/Reward Example

  • Net credit collected: $1.20
  • Defined risk: $1.30
  • Potential ROI: Around 92%

Managing the Trade

  • Hold through expiration if price stays calm
  • Close early if NVDA makes a sharp move and one side decays quickly
  • Take partial gains the next day if the stock stays neutral and the credit shrinks, often capturing 50% instead of waiting for the full amount

Market psychology also matters. If traders have taken profits too early and NVDA rallies, it can create a Max Pain situation where those traders rush back in. That kind of pressure can support the upside and justify giving the bullish side of the range more room.

Risk FAQ: Why Not Sell Naked Puts?

Some traders prefer selling naked puts, but that requires larger accounts and exposes you to substantial downside risk for relatively small returns. One bad earnings reaction can wipe out months — or even an entire account.

Defined-risk spreads avoid that problem entirely.

This framework — use the MMM, shape the structure to match your bias, define your risk and manage flexibly — turns unpredictable earnings reactions into controlled, repeatable income opportunities.

Now don’t forget to join us at 10 a.m. ET weekdays for Opening Playbook, and at 3:30 p.m. ET Closing Playbook!

Opening Playbook is a bridge for both new and advanced traders to go beyond outdated market narratives into deeper understanding, live at 10 a.m. ET Monday-Friday.

Nate Tucci
Tucci Trades

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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.

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Disclaimer: We develop tools and strategies to the best of our ability, but no one can guarantee the future. There is always a risk of loss when trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. While we have used the Income Machine with great success, we cannot guarantee future results. What you will see today are some of the best examples over the last few months. There were bigger winners, smaller winners, and losers. Since the Income Machine is a tool for traders and not a trading service, profits and performance will vary among users. 

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