🚨 JD and Silas will be live at 10 a.m. ET🚨
 [tap to join them for Opening Playbook]
You ever notice how the market loves to skip steps?
You’re sitting there waiting for the proper retest, with your levels marked, being patient and disciplined, doing everything right, and then the market just does not care.
That’s kind of where we are right now.
I’ve been watching the S&P 500 (SPY), and honestly, we’re in a bit of no man’s land from a short term timing perspective. The market hasn’t completed the full retest I was looking for, that clean, textbook move back to confirm support before the next leg higher.
But here’s the thing: I’m still bullish.
Because we’ve got a V shaped recovery pattern forming, and historically, those favor continuation far more often than reversal. The broader tape supports that idea too, as after a long stretch where the market opened neutral nearly every day, seven of the last eight sessions, we’re finally seeing real momentum and direction return.
The V Shaped Recovery Pattern
I’ve talked about this before, but it’s worth repeating because it’s the foundation of my current stance.
When the market puts in a sharp V shaped recovery, a quick flush followed by an equally aggressive snapback, it is usually not a fake out. It is a sign of underlying strength, where buyers step in, absorb selling pressure, and flip the script.
The data backs this up. Of the 579 sessions over the last 20 years that matched similar criteria, 385 pushed higher into the close and 194 moved lower. That kind of historical tendency does not guarantee anything, but it does tilt the probabilities.
Add to that an important dynamic on the sector side. Risk on and risk off areas are trading places in a way that shows rotation rather than retreat, meaning it is not weakness, but capital shifting across the board. That type of movement can frustrate short term traders, but it often supports market stability more than it hurts it.
Patience vs. Reality
I get it. When you’re waiting for confirmation, it is frustrating when the market does not give it to you, because you want that clean setup and that retest to hold so you can step in with confidence.
But sometimes the strongest moves are the ones that leave everyone waiting on the sidelines.
That is why I am not getting caught up in the short term noise. Yes, the technicals are a little messy, and yes, we are still in that space where things feel unsettled, but between the V shaped recovery, the shift in early session momentum, the sector rotation, and the historical stats leaning bullish, the bigger picture still points higher.
If we get a clean retest, I will be ready. If we do not and the market keeps climbing, I will not be surprised.
Either way, the bias is clear.
Now don’t forget to join us at 10 a.m. ET weekdays for Opening Playbook, and at 3:30 p.m. ET Closing Playbook!
Nate Tucci
Tucci Trades
Follow along and join the conversation for real-time analysis, trade ideas, market insights and more!
- Telegram: https://t.me/nate_tucci
- YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@NewMoneyCrew
Important Note: No one from the New Money Crew team or Tucci Trades will ever contact you directly on Telegram.
*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
P.S. We’re Going After My 100th Trade — Killing a Bird With 2 Stones
I’ve been deploying a unique approach to the market for at least 15 months. One that allows me target cash whichever direction the market or the stock decides to go.
The next opportunity opening up right now is our 100th trade and I would like you to join in on the milestone with me.
Disclaimer: We develop tools and strategies to the best of our ability, but no one can guarantee the future. There is always a risk of loss when trading past performance is not indicative of future results. Since 1/12/24, the strategy has issued 99 closed trades, for a total win rate of 72.8%. The average gain, winners and losers included, has been 5.12% per trade over an average holding period of 20 days.
