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Here’s a situation that separates disciplined traders from the crowd chasers.
Yesterday, someone pushed through 4,463 contracts on Western Digital (WDC) at $11.46. We’re talking about approximately $1.1 million in risk to make around $100,000, roughly a 10% return over just two days.
That is the kind of volume that turns heads. People in my community noticed, and some were eager to follow along, with a few asking if I was getting in.
My answer? I was not touching it, because the risk was not worth the reward for me.
Before you think I’m crazy for passing on what looks like easy money, let me walk you through exactly why I sat this one out, and why that decision is actually a bigger lesson than any winning trade I could show you.
When the Premium Evaporates, So Does the Edge
Here’s the thing about chasing trades after the initial move: You are dealing with completely different risk reward dynamics than the person who got in first, and that is where discipline comes in.
By the time we were discussing this trade, the premium had already dropped significantly. Someone mentioned they got filled at around $0.20, but by the time we talked about it, it was down to about $0.12, and by the current session, it had dropped to $0.08.
If you got in on this trade early and made money, good on you. That is a solid win, and I am not knocking anyone who caught it at the right price, but timing matters.
The original entry had already captured most of the premium decay, so anyone jumping in late was looking at a fraction of the original profit potential with virtually the same risk.
I would have had to go up a couple strikes to get the same credit, which fundamentally changes the setup. At that point, you are not making the same trade anymore, you are making a worse version of it.
Consistency Comes From Sticking to Your Parameters
Look, I will always celebrate someone catching the early move, but nearly four decades of trading have taught me one thing above all else: Consistency is built on discipline.
The hardest part is having the discipline to pass when the setup does not meet your specific criteria, even when someone else is risking over $1 million and the whole room is buzzing about it.
That is the kind of emotional control most traders struggle with, and it is exactly why so many end up frustrated instead of profitable.
Me being able to pass on a trade like this is exactly why I have been so consistent lately. I stick to what is making me money, I stick to the risk reward that makes sense, and I do not let FOMO rewrite my parameters just because a trade is getting attention.
The market offers opportunities every single day. The real skill is knowing which ones to take and which ones to let pass by.
So the next time you see a trade everyone is excited about but the entry does not align with your criteria, remember this: The best trade you make might be the one you do not take.
Jeffry Turnmire
Jeffry Turnmire Trading
I host my Morning Monster livestream at 9:15 a.m. ET each weekday on YouTube, and then 30 Minutes of Awesome at 5 p.m. ET each Tuesday!
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Important Note: No one from the ProsperityPub team or Jeffry Turnmire Trading will ever message you directly on Telegram.
I’m just a regular dude in Knoxville, Tennessee: a husband, father, civil engineer, urban farmer, maker and trader.
I’ve been at this trading thing with real money for 20-plus years, and started paper trading over 35 years ago. I have a knack for making some epic predictions that just may very well come true. Why share them? Because I like helping other people — it’s the Eagle Scout in me.
*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
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