🚨Opening Playbook is live at 10 a.m. ET🚨
Graham is out today, but I’m jumping on to give a quick intro before we play one of his absolute core strategy presentations. Join me live to catch this breakdown and see exactly how to apply his system to the current market [tap to join us for Opening Playbook]
I’m going to let you in on something I don’t usually share with folks outside the 9:45 a.m. ET session.
Most traders wake up, check the market, see if it’s green or red and just wing it.
But here’s the thing — there’s a system. A framework. And it’s built on 20 years of data that tells you with surprising accuracy what the market tends to do after certain types of opens.
I call it the Morning Edge.
Instead of thinking in the usual 4 p.m. to 4 p.m. cycle, the real signal comes from 9:45 a.m. to the close. That shift in focus changes everything because the first 15 minutes reveal more than most traders realize.
It’s not a gut feeling. It’s not a hunch. It’s a structured way to read the market at 9:45 a.m. and set yourself up for the rest of the day.
The Four Components That Matter
Every morning at 9:45 a.m., I measure four things: trend, volatility, direction and momentum.
Trend is the long-term view on the daily chart using key moving averages. Are we in a bullish market? Bearish? Choppy? That sets the backdrop.
Volatility measures how much the market is moving — from low to normal to high to extremely high. This tells me how much room the market has to run or fall.
Direction is the intraday move from the 4 p.m. close through 9:45 a.m. Are we gapping up? Fading? Holding steady?
And finally, momentum measures how fast we’re moving — from the last close through the 9:30 a.m. open plus the first 15 minutes.
Here’s a simple example. The market recently gapped up 0.5% — a medium-up gap — but in the first 15 minutes, we moved only 0.01%. That tells you the gap created the initial lift, but there was no immediate follow-through after the bell.
I also measure market internals from 9:30 to 9:45 a.m. If we gap up and internals are really positive, that open tends to hold. If internals are strong on a gap down, that often sets up a clean gap-fill move.
What History Tells Us Happens Next
Once I have those four measurements, I run them through 20 years of historical data to find similar setups. In this case, we matched 589 sessions with similar characteristics.
Of those 589 sessions, 390, or 66%, moved higher from 9:45 a.m. to the 4 p.m. close.
The average close was 0.42% higher with an average intraday high of 0.56% and an average intraday low of 0.25%.
The 199 down days, or 33%, averaged slightly lower closes with intraday highs of 0.19% and lows of 0.6%.
So what does that tell me? It tells me the odds favor upside. It tells me the expected range. And it tells me where my risk sits if I’m wrong.
Bullish markets with contracted ATR show only 0.8% high-to-low ranges, while mixed trends with high momentum can swing 1.6% to 1.7% intraday.
And while the Morning Edge is a daily framework, seasonality still matters. Markets tend to be positive in July, negative in August and September and very positive in Q4 — context that often aligns with the intraday signals we measure.
Now don’t forget to join us at 10 a.m. ET weekdays for Opening Playbook, and at 3:30 p.m. ET Closing Playbook!
Nate Tucci
Tucci Trades
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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.Â
