🚨 I’ll be live at 11:30 a.m. ET🚨
We’ll manage and roll our income trades and more [tap to join us for Market Masters]!
Here’s something that should raise eyebrows…
The federal government is getting ready to change how the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is calculated. Specifically, they’re adjusting it to be less affected by groceries and gas prices.
Sounds like complete BS to me.
Look, I get that the Federal Reserve prefers the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index as its inflation measure. But when you change the methodology and the headline number looks better, you’re not necessarily solving inflation — you’re just massaging the data.
They need headline inflation to come down, so they’re changing how they measure it. And here’s the kicker — this isn’t the first time the methodology has changed.
The Real Numbers Don’t Lie
If we still calculated inflation the way we did in the 1980s, we could have seen readings of 10% to 12% or more instead of the 5% to 7% that was reported at times the past few years. The disconnect between official statistics and what people actually experience is getting absurd.
We all go to the grocery store. We see the price of beef and nearly everything else on the shelves. We see the price of gas. Those prices didn’t return to their pre-COVID levels — they jumped and have continued moving higher.
But if food and energy have less influence on the calculation, the increases hitting your wallet every day will matter less in the headline number.
Convenient, isn’t it?
A lot of this comes down to the money supply. When the monetary base expands dramatically, more dollars compete for goods, services and assets. That can create persistent price pressure across the economy. You can change the inflation formula, but you can’t erase the consequences of monetary expansion.
Trading the Narrative vs. Trading Reality
It’s like Whose Line Is It Anyway? — the numbers are made up, the points don’t matter and everybody is supposed to feel good. Everything operates on vibes now.
But traders need to separate the market’s reaction from the underlying reality. Markets trade on headline numbers, especially in the short term. If CPI comes in lower because of a methodology change rather than genuine disinflation, stocks may rally, bond yields may fall and expectations for rate cuts may increase anyway.
That can create opportunity, but it also creates risk. Watch the initial reaction, then compare the headline with the underlying components, consumer prices and broader monetary conditions.
A lower reading may drive short-term momentum without signaling that inflationary pressure has truly softened.
Trade the market’s response to the narrative if you want, but don’t confuse that response with economic reality. Eventually, those two things have a way of converging — and when they do, it’s not usually gentle.
Keep your eyes open and question everything you’re being told.
Jeffry Turnmire
Jeffry Turnmire Trading
I host my Morning Monster livestream at 9:15 a.m. ET each weekday on YouTube, and then 30 Minutes of Awesome at 5 p.m. ET each Tuesday!
Please check out my channel and hit that Subscribe button!
You can also follow along and join the conversation for real-time analysis, trade ideas, market insights and more!
- Telegram:https://t.me/+6TdDE7-F6GlhMmJh
Important Note: No one from the ProsperityPub team or Jeffry Turnmire Trading will ever message you directly on Telegram.
I’m just a regular dude in Knoxville, Tennessee: a husband, father, civil engineer, urban farmer, maker and trader.
I’ve been at this trading thing with real money for 20-plus years, and started paper trading over 35 years ago. I have a knack for making some epic predictions that just may very well come true. Why share them? Because I like helping other people — it’s the Eagle Scout in me.
*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
The New and Improved Apollo Algo Just Flagged the No. 1 Opportunity for the summer!
I’ll show you how it pinpoints setups and hands them to you on a silver platter…
Complete with the historical win rates, targets and stops mapped out before you place a trade.
