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You know what I’ve noticed lately?
Everyone’s trying to call the next move. Bulls are screaming for new highs. Bears are waiting for the crash. And the market? It’s chopping around, throwing curveballs and making both sides look silly.
So here’s what I’ve been doing instead: I’m not trying to predict where we’re going. I’m watching the structure itself and positioning for movement — not direction.
Because when you trade structure instead of direction, you can relax when the chaos hits. You get into a trade, the crazy news happens and it’s like, “Okay, great. Go crazy, market. Go wherever you want.”
We’ve had so much chop and chaos lately that you almost expect something to pop up — an international conflict or any of the other risks that can emerge over a weekend. And yet the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) has been around 14.70, suggesting the options market isn’t pricing in extreme fear.
That combination matters. Uncertainty is everywhere, but volatility can still be relatively inexpensive. If you’re positioned correctly, you don’t have to predict which way things break.
Where Risk-Defined Strategies Shine
This is where risk-defined strategies shine. Instead of betting big on one direction and hoping you’re right, you define the maximum risk upfront and use a structure that can benefit from movement either way.
For me, that means taking risk-defined and non-directional plays while the market remains choppy. With VIX low, we’ve gotten some pretty good value on these two-way Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) setups.
The idea is simple: Structure a trade that can win if the market moves decisively in either direction. In one intraday setup, all we’re doing is avoiding the 11 a.m. ET price. We aren’t predicting whether QQQ finishes above or below it — we’re positioning for price to move away from that level.
That doesn’t mean taking every setup. I recently skipped one because it required going over 0.5% while still costing around 65 cents. When I go over 0.5%, I prefer the price to be in the 50s — perhaps 57 or 58 cents on QQQ. The structure wasn’t attractive enough, so it was a pass.
Let the Data Do the Heavy Lifting
These trades aren’t based on a hunch. The rationale comes from playing the historical data and frequency — studying how often price moves far enough from a given level, then comparing that tendency with the cost and defined risk of the trade.
Before we get another bull run, do we need a high-VIX event or some pain in this market? Maybe. But rather than getting directional too early, I’d rather watch the structure, compare the probabilities and wait for pricing that makes sense.
Take the risk-defined plays. Take the non-directional setups. Let the market do what it’s going to do.
When you’re positioned for structure instead of direction, you don’t need to be right about what happens next. You just need to be ready for it.
Nate Tucci
Tucci Trades
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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
My Unfiltered Outlook for Q4 With Yields in View
Despite the Treasury Department doing everything possible to calm the storm…
Yields aren’t slowing down!
How will that impact the market as we head into Q4?
And what’s the way to play everything going on?
Join Emily, Kane, Geof and me today, September 28th at 3:30 pm ET for an urgent roundtable.
We’ll discuss the situation in the Treasury market…
Interest rates…
And the Iran war…
Even better…
We’ll share the one weekly setup you can use to play the volatility we’re seeing right now.
A setup that has delivered a stunning 31 winners out of 34 signals this year alone!
No reckless trading guarantees here…
But Tap Here to Save Your Seat
Disclaimer: We develop tools and strategies to the best of our ability, but we can’t guarantee the future. Trading always carries a risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results, from 8/6/2024 to 9/8/2026. The win rate is 88.7%, with an average return of 5.80% over a 3-day hold time.
