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We’re in a caution period for gold right now, and the setup suggests we could be in for another flush lower before this move is done. As long as gold stays below the $5,000 level, conditions are ripe for a new lower low beneath the $4,100 mark we hit back on March 23.
That line in the sand matters because staying under it keeps the door open for further downside.
If we push through $5,000, the setup changes. But while we’re still underneath, the technical picture is clear and the timing window, the technical levels, the overall market structure — they’re all aligned for this type of move. It’s one of those moments where the chart is giving you a clean message.
The Ideal Window Is Right Now Through Month-End
The ideal spot for this flush lasts from now through the end of the month. Could it take longer? Absolutely. But this stretch into month-end is where the probability is highest.
And here’s the thing about these setups…
They don’t need to be dramatic. We just need a lower low — even a dip to $4,090 could be enough before gold rips back higher. It’s not about catching a big breakdown, it’s about recognizing the subtle moves that reset the structure.
This window is particularly important because quick flushes often happen when timing and structure line up like this. A lower low is all it takes to trigger the next phase of the pattern, and right now we’re sitting squarely in that opportunity zone.
What Happens After the Flush?
Once we get that lower low, I’d typically expect a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement back up, possibly around the $69,000 area. That’s the classic rebound zone that tends to follow these fast downside moves. It doesn’t guarantee anything, but it gives you a roadmap for what often comes next.
Risk management matters here too. A clean way to structure it is simple: The stop is a dollar below the low. You could be holding on to this for a whole swing down.
That keeps the risk defined while still giving the trade room to develop if the flush unfolds.
Bottom line: While we stay under $5,000, the path of least resistance points down. If that level breaks, the picture shifts. But for now, the next couple weeks carry real potential for a sharp reset in gold — and being prepared is the key.
Jeffry Turnmire
Jeffry Turnmire Trading
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I’m just a regular dude in Knoxville, Tennessee: a husband, father, civil engineer, urban farmer, maker and trader.
I’ve been at this trading thing with real money for 20-plus years, and started paper trading over 35 years ago. I have a knack for making some epic predictions that just may very well come true. Why share them? Because I like helping other people — it’s the Eagle Scout in me.
*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
P.S. My Mechanical Approach Totally Gets Rid of the Emotion
I’ve been giving out trade signals so straightforward you don’t even have room to overthink things.
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If you’d like to get your hands on them…
