Most traders test a few patterns on a handful of charts and call it research. I went a bit further.
I recently fed my Open Claw bot 24 years of complete market history — every ticker, all the way down to 1-minute data. The volume was so massive it took 10 full days just to process it into a usable database. When the system finally finished, it revealed something remarkable: 28 million examples of my Market Roadmap patterns.
Yes, 28 million! That’s more patterns than I could analyze in several lifetimes even if that was all I did every single day.
But this isn’t just about building a giant dataset. It’s about removing every ounce of bias from my trading. After nearly four decades in the markets, intuition can trick you into believing something works just because you’ve seen it a few times.
Large-scale testing has a way of showing what’s real and what’s just pattern recognition gone rogue.
The Scale of Real Testing
In 2024 alone, I reviewed more than 40,000 charts on TradingView — that’s their number, not mine. In my nearly four decades, I’ve looked at well over 100,000 charts, possibly 200,000 or more.
I analyze everything from 1-minute charts up to monthly time frames. I study how patterns behave across different market conditions and how macro forces shape price action. Most importantly, I don’t rely on what I think works.
I test everything until the math proves it.
When Testing Proves You Wrong
One of the best examples came from something I was sure would perform better: Using Average True Range for stop placement. In theory, it seemed smarter than a simple dollar-below-the-low rule. So I tested it across hundreds of thousands of examples.
Turns out, it didn’t work so great. Dollar below the low worked best across all time frames and all tickers. The average trade performed better with that simple rule.
And it didn’t matter if the ticker was $300 or $20 — the pattern held.
There was one exception. With stocks under $20, a dollar below the low becomes a giant percentage of the trade. At $20, it’s 5% of your position. At $10, it’s 10%. At $5, you’re looking at 20%. That’s one reason I avoid low-priced stocks.
The math exposes risks most traders don’t see.
Deep testing also showed that surface-level metrics don’t tell you much. Win rate alone doesn’t mean anything without understanding risk, drawdown, expectancy and how outcomes are distributed. That’s why I focus heavily on profit factor, risk-reward ratios and maximum drawdown. These aren’t just interesting numbers — these are what keep you in the game.
The difference between traders who succeed and those who don’t often comes down to this: Are you trading what you think works, or what you’ve proven works through rigorous testing?
I’ve spent nearly four decades — and processed 28 million patterns — to make sure I’m in the second category.
Jeffry Turnmire
Jeffry Turnmire Trading
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I’m just a regular dude in Knoxville, Tennessee: a husband, father, civil engineer, urban farmer, maker and trader.
I’ve been at this trading thing with real money for 20-plus years, and started paper trading over 35 years ago. I have a knack for making some epic predictions that just may very well come true. Why share them? Because I like helping other people — it’s the Eagle Scout in me.
*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
P.S. My Mechanical Approach Totally Gets Rid of the Emotion
I’ve been giving out trade signals so straightforward you don’t even have room to overthink things.
And I have a lot more of these straightforward setups ripe for the taking.
If you’d like to get your hands on them…
