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There’s a lot of noise out there right now about gold’s run being done…. I’ve been seeing the headlines too.
But when I look at the data — the actual historical patterns — I’m seeing something completely different.
And I want to share it with you because this isn’t my opinion. This is a signal with a track record that’s hard to ignore.
I’ve been digging into some research from Tom Busby and the DTI team, and they’ve uncovered a gold volatility indicator that’s had a perfect win rate over the past 17 years.
Not 80%. Not 90%. We’re talking 100%.
The indicator is built specifically for SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) — it’s essentially a VIX for gold, based on options pricing. The regular VIX of course measures volatility, and when this gauge spikes above 38, something very consistent happens next.
A Perfect Track Record Over Five Signals
Since 2008, this gold VIX has spiked above 38 only five times. And every single time it happened, gold was higher six months later. No exceptions.
Even more impressive is what happens over a longer window. Every single time that happened, gold was higher 12 months later — again showing a 100% win rate over the following year. The average return during those periods was about 20%, which is substantial when you consider how few signals this indicator gives.
Now, I discussed this some last week, but I want to review it again because the setup is repeating. Patterns like this don’t appear often, and when they do, they deserve a closer look.
There’s another layer to all of this. We have a new Fed Chair coming in May, and markets tend to experience some unique seasonality around leadership transitions. When there’s uncertainty in the air, gold often attracts fresh attention as investors look for stability.
Why I’m Still Bullish on Gold
I know the narrative out there is that this could be the end of the run. But I don’t think so. I think we’ve got another leg up coming. I think we’re going to see new highs in gold this year.
We recently saw the typical 10% pullback that tends to precede rebounds, and now this volatility spike signal is flashing again. That gives us two historically reliable conditions lining up at the same time.
I’m not chasing blind optimism here. I’m following patterns that have proven themselves over nearly two decades. And when something works 100% of the time across multiple signals, I pay attention.
While some are calling for gold’s decline, I’m watching for the next move higher. The data suggests we’re not done yet — not even close.
Graham Lindman
Graham Lindman Trading
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P.S. You May Never Trade Options the Same Way Again
Wait, a minute!
“Does Alex sell marbles now?”
Well, as lucrative as the marble industry may or may not be, that’s far from what he’s doing.
However, marbles in a cup is the best way to illustrate what Alex will show everyone LIVE 7 p.m ET on Sunday.
I’m on board, and I might even be a little more excited than Alex.
Now we can’t make reckless market guarantees here…
But what you’re seeing with these marbles could be the key to unlocking payout opportunities worth 50%, 100% or even 200% in days…
Even when the underlying stock makes no significant move at all. It’s an entirely new way to approach the options market.
So be sure to save your seat…
