There’s a question I keep coming back to when I’m evaluating these massive emerging tech plays — and it’s not the one most traders are asking.
Most people want to know what the profitability looks like right now. What are the current earnings? What’s the multiple?
But here’s the thing: The market is pricing things five years out, not looking at what profitability is at this very second. If you’re using only traditional metrics, you’re going to look at something like SpaceX and call it massively overvalued.
On paper, sure — but that’s not how real growth stories work. In these kinds of markets, you can’t wait for a company to prove every layer of its future before you act.
You have to pre-invest in the potential if you want to be part of the upside. That shift in perspective — from what is to what could be — is the difference between seeing opportunity and missing it entirely.
When I’m looking at a company like SpaceX, I’m asking myself a different question: Could this be as profitable as Alphabet (GOOGL), NVIDIA (NVDA), Amazon (AMZN) or Apple (AAPL)?
I don’t know for certain. Nobody does.
But when I look at the landscape, I think maybe. And that “maybe” carries a lot of weight when you consider the context.
The Capex Arms Race That Changes Everything
There’s a massive capex spending AI arms race happening right now. And SpaceX’s ability to launch at one-tenth the cost of the rest of the world positions it to be huge — and heavily relied upon.
But here’s what really opened my eyes.
I met with someone a couple weeks ago who walked me through everything SpaceX is doing and everything it’s getting into. We spent hours on this — and I’m talking about a four-hour meeting covering just nine slides.
My reaction? Holy cow, this is way bigger than I ever imagined.
The launch capability is just a slice of the pie. There are layers of opportunity here that most people haven’t even begun to price in yet.
One of the biggest is the recurring revenue engine already driving the business: Starlink. Global, always-on internet access is not a speculative dream; it’s a functioning network generating real revenue today.
And it’s being supported by a cost structure no competitor can touch because reusable rockets have slashed launch costs by nearly 90% compared to anyone else. That kind of structural advantage is a moat, not a hope.
And those layers extend far beyond satellites and rockets. Pharma companies are already exploring manufacturing processes in space because it’s more effective and cheaper than doing it on Earth.
Data, materials and research — whole industries are opening up that most investors haven’t even considered.
I think this is just the beginning — just the tip of the iceberg. The world doesn’t truly know exactly how valuable this can be and all the pieces going into it.
Where The Opportunity Lives Right Now
So what does this mean for us as traders?
I think there’s a huge opportunity that’s currently underpriced in some of these other companies — the ones positioned around this ecosystem.
And that’s where things get even more interesting. SpaceX is going to have an enormous influence on who succeeds around it.
Its choice of partners, suppliers and collaborators is going to create winners almost overnight. You’ll see stocks pop or drop simply based on who gets pulled into its orbit.
That halo effect is real and it matters because it tells you exactly where to be looking for actionable trades.
That’s why we track these ecosystem names using scanners and dashboards that flag unusual volume and price action in real time.
Recently, those tools caught major moves in Redwire (RDW) and Momentus (MNTS), with MNTS jumping more than 30% in short order. These aren’t random spikes.
They’re early signals of capital rotating into the surrounding infrastructure.
But there’s one more piece that makes this next phase even bigger.
As excitement builds heading into the IPO, major index providers have already moved to include SpaceX on day one. That has never happened before.
And it means every institutional fund tied to those indexes will be forced to buy shares immediately — at meaningful weight — simply because of SpaceX’s size.
That kind of mechanical inflow creates a liquidity surge unlike anything we’ve seen during a debut. It’s going to accelerate price discovery and amplify the momentum that was already forming.
The key is understanding the forward valuation framework.
When you’re evaluating emerging tech plays, ask yourself: What does this look like in five years? What’s the total addressable market? Who’s positioned to dominate?
If you’re only looking at today’s numbers, you’re missing the entire story.
Graham Lindman
Graham Lindman Trading
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