A Seasonal Amazon Window Opens Today and ‘Too Big to Fail’ Insurance Stocks

by | Jan 14, 2025

LIVE AT 2:30 PM ET: MY NO. 1 AI STOCK FOR 2025 AND MORE!

Mark your calendar…

Because at 3 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Jan. 15, we’re hosting a very special roundtable called “Trump’s Impact on the Market.”

I’ll be joined by Kane Shieh, Alex Reid, Chris Pulver, Jeffry Turnmire and Roger Scott, and each of us will share our No. 1 trade idea for 2025 and expectations after Trump takes office again.

It’s all going down at 3 p.m. ET tomorrow!

We’ll have a lot to say about actionable opportunities for everyone in attendance!

As for what’s going on today…

The S&P 500 is navigating a delicate balance as we kick off the week. While today’s action is positive so far, the broader market remains under pressure.

The head-and-shoulders pattern in the S&P 500 I’ve been watching is still in play, signaling caution. Yes, the index has shown resilience, but it hasn’t broken convincingly out of its current range. With bond yields creeping higher and economic data painting a mixed picture, the market seems hesitant to find a direction.

At the same time, there’s been a lot of news about insurance stocks, particularly fears of bankruptcy tied to the devastating California wildfires.

Some reports suggest these fires could be the costliest disaster in U.S. history, bringing significant insurance payouts and economic strain.

Naturally, that’s sent a wave of anxiety through the insurance and energy sectors.

But here’s the key: Not all insurance stocks are equally exposed to this kind of risk.

Take a look at Progressive (PGR), Aflac (AFL), and Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG) — these are the insurance stocks we’ve been trading, and they have minimal exposure to California’s wildfire losses.

Think of this situation like the regional banking crisis we’ve seen before. The smaller players, those with concentrated exposure, are the ones facing the heat. Meanwhile, the larger, diversified names — think “too big to fail” equivalents in the insurance sector — are much more resilient.

So while it’s important to keep an eye on developments, this is no time to panic. The news is undoubtedly alarming, but understanding the nuances here will help us separate noise from opportunity.

For now, I’m watching closely but staying the course.

A Stock to Watch: Amazon (AMZN)

Amazon (AMZN) is a stock to keep on your radar this January, as it historically tends to shine in the first month of the year. This bullish seasonal trend makes it an interesting opportunity for savvy traders.

Buying AMZN on Jan. 14 and holding for 20 days has delivered an average return of 4.36% over the past several years. While past performance isn’t a guarantee, it’s worth considering as we navigate the early days of 2025.

Final Thoughts

For now, it’s a wait-and-see game. We’re in an environment where quick rallies are met with selling pressure, and every dip gets some buying interest. The next few sessions will be critical to determining whether this market can regain its footing, or if a deeper correction is on the horizon. Stay nimble, watch your key levels, and remember, there’s always opportunity in volatility if you’re prepared.

That’s all until 2:30 p.m. ET, when I’m covering my No. 1 AI stock for 2025 — Apple (AAPL)!

Graham Lindman
Graham Lindman Trading

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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk. 

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The profits and performance shown are not typical. We make no future earnings claims, and you may lose money. From 10/5/23 through 12/20/24, the average win rate on live published trade alerts is 70.1%. The average return on the options including winners and losers is 41.09% over a 4 day average hold time.

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