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When I’m scanning my seasonal dashboard, I’m not just looking for any edge — I’m looking for patterns that have proven themselves year after year. And right now, one stock is sitting at the very top of that list.
Broadcom (AVGO) just entered what I consider one of the most reliable seasonal windows I track: April 27 through May 24. We’re already a few days past the opening of the window but price hasn’t moved much, and the data behind it is still very compelling.
Here’s what caught my attention: Over the last 10 years, AVGO has gone up during this window nine times. We’re not talking about marginal gains either — the stock averages a 10% move during this period. Some years have been flat sure, but I’ve also seen moves of 35%, 27% and multiple years with 13-15% gains.
The only losing year was 2019. That’s a 90% win rate over a decade. Not perfect, sure, and nothing is guaranteed in trading, but those are the kinds of numbers that make me pay attention.
Beyond the seasonal edge, the fundamental backdrop supports this trade. AVGO is a chip stock and a tech stock — it’s got all the things we like right now. If the Magnificent Seven continues to hold strong and ramp spending to win what’s become an AI infrastructure arms race, that benefits AVGO directly.
These mega-caps rely on AVGO for critical components, so increased capex flows straight into its ecosystem.
It’s also worth noting that the strength isn’t isolated. The Technology (XLK) sector — led by names like Nvidia (NVDA), Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) — typically enters one of its strongest seasonal stretches in May. So AVGO isn’t acting alone here…
It’s part of a broader rotation into tech that historically kicks in around this time.
Even with the recent volatility, the market hasn’t cracked. After a huge rally, the bulls have taken a breather, but the indexes are holding their ground. This kind of consolidation without a breakdown has often been the early setup for the next leg higher in tech-related assets, which adds even more weight to this AVGO window.
Why This Setup Makes Sense Right Now
Another key detail: AVGO doesn’t report earnings until June, so we don’t have to worry about playing through an earnings window. That removes a layer of uncertainty I’d rather avoid.
If we get that next push from tech, AVGO should move with it. The stock also has multiple layers of confirmation behind it — both my Newton momentum system and the Apex signal framework are currently aligned bullish, something I don’t see line up this cleanly very often.
How I’m Playing This With Options
For those of you who trade options, I’ve manually constructed a vertical spread that offers solid risk-reward without requiring a massive move in the stock.
Here’s the setup: Buy the 420 call, sell the 425 call expiring May 29. This trade is currently priced at $225 with a payout potential around 120%. This type of vertical debit spread is what I refer to as a wrap order — a structure placed close to the current stock price to optimize the risk-to-reward ratio while requiring only a small directional move.
The move we need is small. We’re talking about roughly a $9 push to hit max profit, which is less than AVGO’s average true range. This stock typically covers that distance in a single trading day, so the target sits well within a normal fluctuation. It’s not asking for much.
That said, timing matters. If you’d rather wait for more price confirmation, that’s completely valid. I’m sharing this now because the seasonal window just opened a couple of days ago, and some traders prefer capturing the full duration. Both approaches make sense depending on your style.
If you like diversification, there are a couple of other tech names showing strong seasonal and current strength as well — Lam Research (LRCX) and Aehr Test Systems (AEHR) are both attractive alternatives following similar patterns. They’re worth keeping on your radar if you want additional exposure.
This isn’t about chasing momentum. It’s about positioning in a proven window with a solid fundamental backdrop, strong sector support and a defined risk-reward structure. That’s the kind of setup I can get behind.
Graham Lindman
Graham Lindman Trading
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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
P.S. My No. 1 Daily setup and What Happens When You Hold Till the Close
I’ve been showing everyone how to target 50% a day in less than an hour…
Every morning using my No. 1 daily setup.
However, if you hold the same trade until the close, that 50% target quickly transforms into what could be a 100% payout!
