Hey folks,
Still down here in Ponte Vedra Beach this week, teaching alongside my buddy Tom Busby.
The weather’s fine, the trading room’s buzzing — but I wanted to send a quick note before the day gets away from me.
We saw a pop in oil prices yesterday.
Why?
Well, it comes down to two things: OPEC and geopolitics.
Over the weekend, OPEC had their latest production meeting. Now normally, when they say they’re increasing production, that’s bearish for oil — more supply usually means lower prices.
But this time, they made a subtle shift: yes, they’re still increasing production, but at a slower pace than originally expected. And in this market, that counts as bullish.
The second factor? Ukraine bombing Russian oil infrastructure.
Any time you get military action that disrupts global energy supply — especially from a major producer like Russia — traders tend to react quickly. Less available oil means higher prices.
So between the slower OPEC ramp-up and the supply risk out of Russia, we got a recipe for strength in crude.
Now whether that holds or not is another question. Overnight, we’re seeing a bit of a stall, but that’s normal after a big pop like the one we got.
But it’s a good reminder: when supply gets shaky, prices usually go up — no matter what the economy’s doing.
Just one more thing we’re watching from the classroom down here.
Stay sharp,
—Geof
P.S. Every time the market opens gives you a chance to target $500 from a $2,500 starting stake. See what I’m talking about here.
