One trader is targeting hundreds every morning by trading just ONE ticker… for only 20 minutes!
The market couldn’t make up its mind today.
- Jobless claims? Higher than expected.
- ISM Manufacturing? Weak.
- S&P Global Manufacturing? A touch better.
- Existing Home Sales? Up 2%.
Every time one headline hit, the market jerked one way — then the next headline pulled it back the other direction.
Down in the morning, up midday, back down this afternoon.
It’s classic “waiting on the Fed” behavior. Traders are stuck in limbo until Powell & Co. talk at Jackson Hole tomorrow.
Portfolio Insurance Update
And that’s why I’m still glad I’ve got my insurance policy in place.
Back on July 29, I told you I was watching for a crack in the S&P futures around 6,350.
I also walked through a simple hedge idea: cheap SPY puts as protection in case things rolled over.
At the time, I suggested the September 19th SPY 530 puts for about a buck. Those were meant as insurance, not a bet-the-farm downside play.
Here’s where we stand now:
I still like having protection in this market. In fact, I’m holding SPY puts myself.
For anyone who missed the earlier note, the November 21st 440 puts are trading around $1 right now — and that’s another way to add some downside coverage.
But fair warning: this isn’t about predicting a crash. It’s about giving yourself a cushion if September turns ugly.
The only real risk to that hedge
If the Fed surprises with a half-point cut, the market could rip higher short-term. A quarter-point wouldn’t shock anyone — but leaving rates unchanged would likely bring the bears back in and send September into a bit of a tailspin.
So here’s the playbook as I see it:
- The data today confirms we’re in a fragile, choppy environment.
- All eyes are on Jackson Hole, especially tomorrow’s speech.
- And until we get clarity, I’d rather have some cheap puts in my pocket than be caught flat-footed.
That’s my insurance plan. I’ll keep adjusting as we see how the Fed plays it.
Stay sharp,
— Geof
