Why Your Usual Options Strategy Will Fail Today

by Chris Pulver | Sep 18, 2026

🚨 I’ll be live at 9 a.m. ET🚨

Well we did a complete 180 Thursday: Markets take out entire FOMC sell-off and park right back in the middle of the weekly range, big OPEX today, so let’s see if there’s more direction or momentum is exhausted and more [tap to join us for the Daily Profit Plan]!

The latest Federal Open Market Committee announcement reinforced an important lesson: Fed days require a different options strategy than ordinary trading sessions.

Keep that in mind for the next rate decision, which comes every six weeks.

Most of the expected volatility is concentrated around the two p.m. Eastern announcement and the press conference 30 minutes later. Before then, premiums may remain stubbornly high as the market waits for the catalyst.

An iron butterfly that might normally produce one to two dollars during the first hour could move only a few cents. That does not necessarily mean the trade is poorly structured. It means the expected move is staying elevated and delaying meaningful time decay.

Build the Plan Before the Announcement

Preparation starts before the open. Identify the market’s expected range, mark its upper and lower boundaries and note the strikes near those extremes. Then determine how much movement your position can tolerate, establish your maximum loss and choose the exact conditions that would trigger an adjustment or exit.

If you trade before the announcement, assume the market could move more than 50 points. For example, if a 50-point swing would push your short strike into immediate danger, reduce the number of contracts, move the strike farther out or skip the setup. Never size the position based only on a calm morning.

Structure also matters:

Wide Iron Condor: more room for large swings when short strikes are placed near expected-move extremes.

Narrow iron condor: lower capital requirement and clearly limited risk.

Neither structure eliminates risk, of course. The better choice is the one whose maximum loss and adjustment requirements fit your plan before volatility expands.

Patience Extends Beyond Fed Day

Do not force a morning trade simply because premium appears attractive. Much of the potential profit may not emerge until after the announcement, when uncertainty begins leaving option prices.

Even then, the first directional move can reverse during the press conference.

Fed sessions also frequently test both sides of the expected range and finish indecisively. That session can become a structure candle — a reference range for a later breakout after hours or during the following trading day.

Rather than chasing the initial reaction, mark the Fed day’s high and low. If price later breaks one boundary and holds beyond it, that confirmation may offer a cleaner directional setup. If it remains inside the range, patience is still the trade.

The goal is not to predict the Fed. It is to define the range, size for an outsized move and protect capital until the market reveals direction. On the next FOMC day, let the market come to you.

I’ll see you in the markets.

Chris Pulver
Chris Pulver Trading

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