This might catch some traders off guard, but Bitcoin has followed an incredibly consistent pattern — and we’re in that window right now.
I’m talking about Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle. When I examined the data, something jumped out that’s worth discussing today.
In each of the last four cycles, October has marked a compelling time to buy Bitcoin. It has consistently coincided with the end of Bitcoin’s bear market.
That historical record matters because current sentiment is far from euphoric. Bitcoin has pulled back from its highs, skepticism has returned and traders are once again questioning whether crypto’s run is over.
Yet similar uncertainty has appeared near the end of past bear markets, just before the pre-halving cycle gained momentum.
The Most Historically Favorable Day
Here’s where it gets even more specific.
Right around Oct. 20 — give or take a few days — has historically been one of the best times to buy during the pre-halving cycle. That doesn’t mean you need to buy at an exact time on that date, but the pattern is worth noting.
The pre-halving cycle is the period before Bitcoin’s mining reward gets cut in half. This event occurs roughly every four years and has historically preceded major bull runs.
History never guarantees what comes next. But when current skepticism resembles the sentiment seen near previous cycle lows, a pattern this consistent deserves attention.
This Cycle Is Different in 1 Key Way
One factor makes this cycle unique: accessibility.
Investors can now gain exposure through the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT). Instead of creating a crypto wallet, managing private keys or navigating a digital-asset exchange, investors can buy the ETF through a standard brokerage account.
That ease of access could be a game-changer. It opens Bitcoin to a wider pool of retail and institutional investors, potentially bringing more capital into the market as the historical cycle develops.
It could also alter the pattern itself. Greater participation may amplify demand and accelerate price moves, but it may also produce sharper swings as more investors react to the same signals. In other words, easier access could strengthen the traditional pre-halving trend while increasing volatility along the way.
Bitcoin isn’t guaranteed to surge — no trade ever is. But when a four-year pattern has been this consistent and market access is easier than ever, it’s worth paying attention.
If you’ve been waiting on the sidelines for a clearer signal, this is the pattern I’m watching.
Graham Lindman
Graham Lindman Trading
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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
P.S. Can You Answer 3 Trading Questions With No Prep?
Quick gut check…
If we handed you three questions about a market setup we’re watching right now, no prep…
Would you get all three right?
Most traders won’t.
But you’ve been trading with us for quite a while now, so you’re probably the exception.
And that’s good…
Because at 7 p.m. ET this Sunday, Nate Tucci and I are handing out $1,000 to anyone who can answer all three.
And as simple as the questions could be…
The traders walking away with it won’t be the loudest in the room. They’ll be the ones who showed up prepared.
And keep your eyes peeled for the clues coming your way.
