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I checked Truth Social the other morning like I always do — and sure enough, another post was timestamped at 2 a.m. Then another at 3 a.m.
I just thought to myself, “Golly, dudes, go to sleep sometime.” That kind of schedule would drive me nuts.
Now look, I’m not trying to make this political. But when you’re managing risk in a market that can gap 3% on an overnight policy announcement, you have to face reality: We’re trading in an environment where major news drops while most of the country is asleep.
I go to bed around 9:30 p.m. CT and wake up at 5:30 a.m. That’s my rhythm. But the current administration operates on a completely different schedule.
When the Headlines Won’t Sit Still
The unpredictability isn’t just about the odd timing — it’s about the lack of consistency.
One day we hear ceasefire talk, only to see it back on the table the next night. Then it’s tariff announcements, followed by a flurry of “drill, baby, drill” executive orders rolling back energy restrictions. It’s a total 180-degree turn from previous policy, and it keeps the markets on edge.
The thing with energy is that it doesn’t take much to get prices moving. Yet crude oil can be surprisingly fickle. It often rallies hard on news, but sometimes it barely budges when you’d expect absolute fireworks. I’ve seen days where the headlines suggested a massive spike, only for oil to finish up a modest $1.30.
That kind of behavior is a stark reminder of how quickly market conditions shift and why you can’t depend on a single pattern holding for long.
On top of the policy whiplash, we have structural constraints baked right into the system. The U.S. desperately needs more refining capacity, yet we’re already operating at roughly 93% capacity and have actually lost several major refineries over the past few years. When you combine tight capacity with unpredictable policy, prices can snap around with very little warning.
That’s why oil behaves differently from many other assets. It has natural price boundaries tied to real-world production and physical demand. You can absolutely build successful trades around those boundaries, but only if you’re honest about how violently prices can move when those lines come under pressure.
These aren’t just empty headlines. They move real money.
Just recently, our ticker gapped down nearly 3% following President Trump’s executive order on tariffs. That wasn’t a problem for our position because our boundary was wide enough to absorb the shock — but that’s exactly my point.
You have to plan for the chaos before it happens.
How I’m Thinking About Position Size Right Now
I’m not saying you should stop trading. I’m saying you shouldn’t pretend this is a normal market.
When I know a major policy announcement is pending — whether it’s tariffs, energy mandates or geopolitical shifts — I adapt. I either skip the week entirely or aggressively reduce my position size while widening my boundaries. There have been plenty of weeks where I looked at the upcoming schedule, anticipated a midweek policy announcement and decided the uncertainty simply wasn’t worth the risk.
If I’m already locked into a trade, I make sure the structure has enough breathing room to withstand a sudden 2% or 3% overnight move.
It isn’t about being scared. It’s about being a realist.
The market doesn’t care if you were fast asleep when a policy changed, and it doesn’t care if a headline gets completely reversed two days later. Your sole job is to ensure your trade can survive the whipsaw. If it can’t, you step aside and wait for a clearer window.
That’s all I’m doing right now. I’m staying patient, keeping my position sizes modest and checking Truth Social first thing in the morning so I’m never blindsided by the opening bell.
Geof Smith
Geof Smith TradingÂ
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