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We are tracking the upcoming earnings season using Silas’s key slides and JD’s Market Scorecard to point you directly to the action. Then, we’re closing the session with ‘The Arena,’ where JD and Silas face off with their best trades for the week [tap to join us for Opening Playbook]
You know what’s frustrating?
When the market gives you a pullback that looks like opportunity — but it’s actually a trap.
That’s exactly what we’re dealing with right now.
I’ve been watching this market churn for weeks, and it’s turning into one of my least favorite setups.
Not because it’s crashing. Not because it’s rallying. But because it’s doing something far worse — it’s rotating in a way that makes the whole thing untradable.
On any given day, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) might outperform the S&P 500 (SPY) while the S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) lags behind. Then the next day, it flips. RSP bounces back, QQQ underperforms and SPY sits somewhere in the middle. It’s this constant tug of war where nothing resolves.
And that might sound like healthy rotation — but it’s not. It’s indecisive. Not just in the broad market, but across sectors.
Market breadth is technically there and some areas are still holding things up, but it all feels like it’s’s happening under the surface without giving you anything clean to trade.
To make things messier, we have a string of major catalysts coming up — earnings season kicks off next week, CPI and PPI follow shortly afterward and the next FOMC meeting comes later in the month.
The most recent minutes didn’t move the needle at all, so the market is simply waiting for something with real weight behind it. That event-heavy calendar only adds to the hesitation and chop we’re seeing right now.
The Problem With This Kind of Pullback
What makes this so tricky is that Technology — specifically the chip sector and big tech names — has massive open space for a real correction. We’re talking about stocks that could flush hard if selling pressure picks up.
There are external pressures piling on too. Rising AI infrastructure costs are pushing inflation higher, and geopolitical uncertainty is adding another layer of instability. So you have a sector that’s already extended, increasingly expensive and now facing additional headwinds.
But here’s the kicker: While Tech is vulnerable, there’s just enough rotation into other sectors to keep the S&P 500 (SPY) from breaking down. It’s holding this strange middle ground where the market looks like it could correct, but it never actually completes the move.
And that’s what I can’t stand — this slow churn where nothing is clean. I’d much rather see a real flush, something like we saw in March, than this grinding sideways mess where one group takes a hit while another keeps the index afloat.
What This Means for How I’m Trading Right Now
So here’s the reality: Both things can be true at the same time. Tech can be set up for a major correction, and SPY can still hold up because of rotation. But that doesn’t make it tradable.
This is the kind of environment where you need to be selective and think in terms of risk versus opportunity. I’m not interested in getting aggressive in the middle of this chop.
If we get a deeper pullback toward the previous March lows, that’s where I’d be more willing to sell premium and ride things out rather than chase trades that don’t offer clean setups.
You want well-timed, lower-risk, higher-reward trades — not random stabs in a market that’s giving you mixed signals.
For me, the whole thing feels a lot like the December-to-February stretch earlier this year. Messy rotation, volatile leadership shifts and no clear direction. It just grinds you down if you force it.
So I’m staying patient. I’m waiting for a real correction that clears out the clutter or a real breakout with conviction behind it.
Until one of those shows up, the best move is to stay disciplined and avoid chasing rotation just because something looks like it’s moving.
Sometimes, the best trade is the one you don’t take.
Now don’t forget to join us at 10 a.m. ET weekdays for Opening Playbook, and at 3:30 p.m. ET Closing Playbook!
Nate Tucci
Tucci Trades
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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.Â
