Hey folks,
You may have noticed a pattern lately…
Gold pulls back sharply overnight, only to stabilize by morning — or even bounce.
It’s enough to throw off your strategy if you’re not watching the right thing.
So what’s driving it? Long story short: China.
Here’s what I mean:
Most of the big overnight moves in gold — especially the drops — aren’t happening during U.S. hours.
They’re happening after U.S. markets close, during Asia’s trading session.
That’s when China does its buying and selling.
And here’s where it gets interesting:
When China decides to buy, they don’t nibble—they buy a lot, and they do it fast.
But they don’t always hold it. They’ve been known to scale back or partially sell positions within hours.
And because they’re such a massive player, that activity leaves a footprint that can easily look like “volatility” — when it’s really just a large-scale reposition.
On the U.S. side, if you wake up and see gold down $40, you might assume the trend is reversing.
But when you step back and see where the moves happened, it starts to make sense.
It’s not that gold is broken. It’s that the hands moving it in the dark are bigger than most people realize.
And it’s not just gold — China’s role in global commodity flows is massive. If you’re not watching their session, you’re only seeing half the picture.
So the next time gold looks weak by sunrise, zoom out and check the overnight tape.
And remember that trend strength doesn’t disappear just because someone sold at 2 a.m.
I covered this and a whole lot more in today’s Market Radar:
Watch the full episode here
And don’t forget to register here to be notified when I’m going live next.
Stay sharp,
—Geof
P.S. Geof Smith is sharing the #1 Trade to Take Advantage of Trump’s “Hidden” Economic Boom.
