Hey folks,
If there’s one thing I’ve learned after decades of watching this thing tick, it’s this:
The market always overreacts.
I don’t care whether it’s a political headline, a Fed speech, a hot CPI number, or a corporate earnings miss — the first move is almost always too big, too fast, and too emotional.
Let me give you a couple of examples.
From early May through about a week ago,we watched crude oil shoot from $58 to $77 in no time flat.
That’s a big move for an asset as historically slow-moving as oil… and I’m sitting there thinking, this thing is just full of hype and hot air. There was no structural shift. Just a wave of “panic-buying” based on headlines.
So what did I do? I started shorting it.
Because despite it rocketing right up to $77, I just didn’t believe it had the strength to get above $80.
And I was right — barely 10 days after that peak, we’re now back below $65.
That’s just understanding the market isn’t always right. It gets spooked. It gets greedy. And then… it comes back to Earth.
Or how about back in April — when all year long we’d been hearing day and night that Trump was going to slap tariffs on everything?
Everyone knew it was coming. It wasn’t a secret.
But the day it actually happens? Remember “Liberation Day”?
The market tanks.
Come on — really?
That’s what I mean when I say overreaction is built in. It’s not a bug — it’s a feature.
And if you can learn to stay grounded when everyone else is panicking, you’ll start to see the market a little differently. You’ll stop chasing candles. You’ll stop buying the peak of every spike.
And you’ll start letting the dust settle before you make your move.
That’s how I’ve survived this game as long as I have — and it’s how you can too.
Stay sharp,
— Geof
