Hey folks,
There’s been a lot of noise in the market lately—tariffs, Powell, gold, copper… all over the place.
But underneath all that?
There’s a silent supply shock building — and it’s got nothing to do with tech stocks or rate hikes.
I’m talking about cattle.
Right now, the U.S. cattle herd is at an almost 75-year low.
That’s right — we haven’t seen numbers this low since 1951.
And this isn’t just a short-term hiccup. The supply side has been gutted.
Years of higher feed costs, drought conditions, and restrictions on grazing public lands have made it harder and harder for ranchers to keep their herds going.
But here’s the kicker: you can’t just flip a switch and fix it.
Unlike chickens or hogs, you can’t rebuild a cattle herd overnight.
The gestation period on a cow is almost the same as a human — 9 to 10 months.
Then it takes years to raise a calf to full weight.
That means even if every rancher in America started rebuilding today, we wouldn’t see the effects in the supply chain for at least two years — until 2027 or beyond.
So what does that mean for us?
It means beef prices are likely to stay high— and maybe go higher — through the rest of the year and into next.
And it isn’t just a grocery store problem, either.
Because the problem may start at the farm and spread to the grocery store.
But it doesn’t stop there: It affects consumer spending, inflation data, and how the Fed interprets price pressures across the board.
It’s a perfect example of how the real economy and the market economy are constantly bumping up against each other — and it’s the kind of thing I love to bring to light.
I covered this and a whole lot more in today’s FREE Market Radar session — including gold’s bounce, copper’s tariff whiplash, and the mess in crude oil.
Watch the full episode here
And don’t forget to register to be notified next time I go live.
Talk soon,
—Geof Smith
P.S. Gold’s recent pullback sets up the perfect opportunity for this trade to set up — perfectly!
