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I know what you’re thinking.
Gold and silver have been getting knocked around for months, and it’s been frustrating to watch.
But before you write them off, let me show you what the tape is actually telling us when we zoom out a little.
The Big Picture Nobody’s Talking About
Sure, precious metals have pulled back over the past seven months. And yes, silver gave back about 50% of its run-up — which looks ugly if you’re staring at a three-month chart.
But here’s the part that matters: When you step back and look at the bigger picture, both gold and silver are still roughly 100% above where they traded a year and a half ago. That’s not weakness.
That’s consolidation inside a bigger bull move.
The indicators also suggest these markets are deeply oversold. When I dig into the fundamentals — not the headlines but the actual data — I don’t see evidence that gold and silver are headed toward some endless decline.
The forces that supported the larger move haven’t simply disappeared because prices pulled back. They’re holding. And that’s exactly what you want to see before the next leg higher.
What the Calendar Says Happens Next
Here’s where it gets interesting.
Historically, the metals market tends to chop around during the summer.
Prices can remain soft, rallies may struggle to gain traction and patience gets tested. What we’re seeing now fits that seasonal pattern rather than signaling that the broader bullish case is broken.
Come the middle of next month and into September, metals often begin to perk up. Then the U.S. fiscal year starts on Oct. 1, which has historically served as another potential catalyst.
Budget negotiations, government spending and renewed attention on the country’s fiscal position can all push investors back toward hard assets.
Monetary policy could add even more fuel. With Fed Chair Kevin Warsh now steering the Federal Reserve in a new direction, any further policy shifts could light a match under one of the biggest trading opportunities I’ve seen in years.
Changes in interest rates, liquidity, or the market’s confidence in the dollar could quickly reshape demand for gold and silver.
No seasonal tendency or policy shift is guaranteed. But with metals oversold, the fundamentals intact and several potential catalysts approaching, I’m not running for the exits.
I’m getting ready for what comes next.
Geof Smith
Geof Smith Trading
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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
P.S. Fed Chair Warsh set to testify before Congress this week – here’s the play!
With Warsh on the host seat this week, traders are looking for the best possible approach or ticker to spearhead this week’s income opportunity.
I’ve got both in black and white, and I’ll show you if you go right here.
Disclaimer: We develop tools and strategies to the best of our ability, but no one can guarantee the future. There is always a risk of loss when trading past performance is not indicative of future results. Since LIVE trading began on 9/18/25, there have been 20 winners, continuing the undefeated streak. In LIVE trading, the average return has been 32.05% and the average hold time has been 24 days.
