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Silver (SLV) is no longer a $25 commodity…
We’re operating in a completely different price regime, and that changes how you interpret out-of-the-money (OTM) strikes and positioning.
If you want to talk about short-dated noise, the March 6 expiration — just eight days out — is where the real gamma lives.
With implied volatility (IV) sitting around 93%, there really aren’t any “cheap” options right now because the market is already pricing in aggressive swings.
Keep in mind: High IV means you’re paying a premium for that speed; if the momentum stalls, the premium evaporates fast.
The near-term lottery tickets are concentrated in the true weeklies. In this kind of environment, you’re not betting on miracles, you’re betting on volatility expansion or continuation.
And at around an $80 share price, a $90 strike isn’t some moonshot. That’s roughly 12.5% OTM — a standard swing in a metal that’s already proving it can move fast.
Some truly aggressive positioning would be at the $115 or $120 strikes — the psychological “triple-digit silver” battleground that both retail and institutions are circling.
The July Positioning That Actually Matters
Now let’s talk about the July 17 expiration.
The $90 calls show open interest of 17,000 contracts. At current premiums in the $4.50-$6.00 range with roughly 144 days to expiration, that’s roughly an $8.5 million position — a multi-million-dollar bet on a roughly 15% breakout.
That’s certainly not chump change. That’s institutional-scale positioning.
And the backdrop matters. As of February 2026, Jane Street Group disclosed a record 20.7 million share stake in SLV, up from just 41,000 shares in late 2025, making them the largest institutional holder.
Now here’s the nuance: Jane Street is a market maker. A position that large can represent heavy hedging activity or structured financial engineering, not just a simple directional bet.
But when you see ETF accumulation of that scale combined with multi-million-dollar call positioning, it tells you liquidity and derivatives activity are building around a defined thesis.
Why Spot Silver Is Already at $87
This isn’t happening in a vacuum.
Supply disruptions tied to cartel turmoil in Mexico — a major silver-producing region — have tightened expectations around future output.
At the same time, short interest dropped 37% as of Feb. 13, signaling that bears are covering and, in many cases, waving the white flag.
That combination — supply stress and aggressive short covering — helps explain why silver isn’t fighting for $25 anymore. It’s fighting over the psychology of triple digits.
I’m not telling you silver is guaranteed to rip. I’m telling you that in a 93% IV environment, with an $87 spot price, shrinking short interest and institutional positioning measured in the millions of shares and millions of dollars, the options market isn’t randomly placing chips.
It’s building around a thesis.
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Geof Smith
Geof Smith Trading
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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
P.S. Why the Price of Silver Could Rise Steeply
The pressure is on Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh to drastically lower interest rates.
Historically, this directly impacts silver prices and I doubt this time would be an exception.
I already have plans in place to play this move while it happens…
Disclaimer: We develop tools and strategies to the best of our ability, but no one can guarantee the future. There is always a risk of loss when trading past performance is not indicative of future results. Since LIVE trading began on 9/18/25, there have been 18 trades, with 15 winners and three still open, continuing the undefeated streak. In LIVE trading, the average return has been 32.05% and the average hold time has been 16 days.
