JOIN ME LIVE AT 9 AM ET FOR: FAST MONEY FRIDAYS
Something’s been on my mind lately, and I think you need to see the data I’ve been analyzing.
I’ve been digging into historical performance patterns across different months, and what I found about September is pretty remarkable — and not in a good way if you’re holding long positions without a plan.
Here’s what the numbers tell us…
September is the only consistently down month when you look at average monthly returns over the last 24 years. We’re not talking about a slight underperformance here. The Nasdaq declines on average during September, and the S&P 500 shows an average decline of about 1% over the last 40-plus years.
Now, a 1% average decline might not sound terrifying, but remember — that’s the average. We could easily see 3% to 5% drawdowns before any potential rallies back up.
The Psychology Behind the September Effect
There’s this weird self-fulfilling September effect that creates systematic selling pressure. It’s not just random market movement — there are real structural factors at work.
A big factor is tax loss harvesting behavior. A lot of people dump their losing positions during this period. They’re looking at their portfolios and thinking…
What’s been making me money this year, and what’s been dragging me down?
This creates summer reallocating and adjustments as investors position for the rest of the year. People want to clean house, cut their losses, and reposition for the final quarter push.
Strategic Positioning for September’s Challenges
The key here isn’t to panic — it’s to be prepared. When you know that selling pressure typically intensifies during September, you can position accordingly rather than getting caught off guard.
I’m not saying the market’s guaranteed to crater, but ignoring 24 years of consistent data would be foolish. Whether you’re holding swing positions, managing risk on longer-term trades, or looking for opportunities, understanding this seasonal pattern gives you an edge.
The bottom line? September has earned its reputation as a challenging month for markets. The data doesn’t lie, and the psychological factors driving this pattern aren’t going away anytime soon.
Stay prepared, manage your risk, and remember — knowing what’s coming is half the battle.
I’ll see you in the markets.
Chris Pulver
Chris Pulver Trading
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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
P.S. SEC Filings Come 45 Days Too Late
Your entire trading setup could be to find what Wall Street insiders are doing … and do the very same.
But there’s a problem with this approach.
Most people try to do this by digging through SEC Form 4 filings.
That’s a good try… But those filings are often published up to 45 days after the trades actually take place.
By then, the insiders have already made their move, and the profit opportunity has passed you by.
That’s why I use something faster called “Liquidity Levels” to follow Wall Street money in real time.
These levels are specific price areas that act as magnets for Wall Street’s large, undercover buy orders.
As price reaches for these levels, 24-hour cash opportunities open up for savvy traders to target double returns by the next day.
And thanks to a piece of trading tech most people have never heard of…
Anyone can now spot and take advantage of these Liquidity Levels.
I’ve been using it to land regular payouts on the SPY.
But these 24-hour opportunities open up every day on some of your favorite stocks.
And although I can’t make reckless guarantees when it comes to the market…
If you’d like to see how you can begin leveraging them on your own – without any help…
