🚨 I’ll be live at 2:30 p.m. ET with Alex Reid🚨
We’ll cover how we’re taking advantage of Tuesday’s low volatility, the surge in states buying precious metals, whether CRCL’s 15% slide is a buying opportunity and more [tap to join us for Profit Panel]
You ever see something that makes you stop and ask: Wait, how does that make sense?
That’s where I’ve been sitting the last few weeks watching precious metals get hammered while Wall Street says gold is the worst thing in the world to own.
Here’s the part that doesn’t sit right with me…
Let’s strip away the headlines for a second. Forget the war chatter, forget the noise. Just look at the baseline.
The United States just hit $39 trillion in debt. And the projections? We’re expected to blow past $40 trillion by the time we get to the elections.
All the money being spent and all the debt that’s out there — and somehow, in that environment, the narrative is that precious metals are dead money.
But gold’s still up on the year. Everyone keeps saying it’s dying, it’s dead — no, it’s still up.
That alone should make you question the story being sold.
Why Gold Is Getting Sold… and It’s Not What You Think
I’m not saying the selling isn’t real. It is. But here’s what I think is actually happening.
Fundamentally, nothing’s changed. Yeah, we had war headlines. But smart money isn’t dumping gold because the fundamentals broke.
They’re taking an asset they’ve made a ton of money in to offset losses somewhere else.
Think about it: If you’re down 10% in one bucket and up big in another, you’d rather net zero than net down 10%.
And there’s a practical angle too. People forget that next month is tax season.
If you’ve got a profitable position in gold and you need to write a check to the IRS, you’re going to raise cash where you actually have gains.
Sometimes people aren’t bearish on the asset — they just need liquidity because the government wants its cut.
The Reality Nobody Wants to Talk About
So here’s where I land…
The recent selling in precious metals isn’t about fundamentals falling apart. It’s tactical. It’s tax-driven. It’s people raising cash from winners because they need liquidity now.
But the big picture? Between all the money being spent and the debt piling up, the fundamental case for gold hasn’t weakened — it’s gotten stronger.
When everyone’s screaming that something doesn’t make sense, that’s usually when I start paying closer attention.
I’m not chasing headlines. I’m watching the math. And right now, the math says this selling creates opportunity in an asset that fundamentally should be holding up just fine.
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Geof Smith
Geof Smith Trading
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P.S. GOLD: My Methodical Approach Just Hit Its 60th Winner
Gold is at a turning point.
With tensions around Iran still in focus, many expected it to push toward new highs by now.
Instead, price action has been choppy… and that leaves traders with a key question:
Is gold gearing up for another run… or starting to lose momentum?
What happens next likely comes down to how this situation unfolds.
If tensions rise, gold could move quickly.
If things cool off, the reaction could catch a lot of traders off guard.
That’s why I put together a focused Gold broadcast.
Inside, I explained:
- Where gold stands right now
- How it typically reacts during geopolitical events
- And whether this sets up a move toward new highs or something else
No guarantees, of course.
But if you want a clearer view of what could come next, you’ll want to take a look.
Disclaimer: We develop strategies to the best of our ability, but we cannot guarantee a future return. There is always a risk of loss when trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Since 12/05/2024, the trading approach discussed today has published 60 trade alerts. All 60 have returned as winning trades, for a 100% win rate. The average return per trade, winners and losers combined, has been 16.88% on an average holding period of 9 days.
