Last week we talked about ways to time the market via buying-and-holding.
Yes, we timed the market.
Even though this makes index fund traders scream in anguish.
But here’s another example of a great trade–if we time our entry instead of entering blindly.
Back in 2022, TQQQ (the leveraged Nasdaq ETF) was flying high without a care in the world.
A blind dollar cost averaging strategy would have us buying in January 2022. Why? Because blind, scheduled buying is the only way to go.
Right?
Here’s TQQQ:
In January 2022, the ETF was around $82.
By the end of 2023, the price was around $50.
That’s some bad timing.
But what if we waited until price fell below “fair value” (the 800 simple moving average)?
If we did that, our first entry would be around $25 in May 2022.
It wasn’t perfect timing but it was smart timing.
And here’s where we are today (even though the market’s been crashing recently):
We’d still be up big.
If we time our entries, sometimes it can pay off huge.
Happy trading,
— Scott Welsh
P.S. As a reminder, these plays are based on my longer-term Weinstein Stage Analysis method. The chart above uses weekly candles and a 30 week simple moving average. For details on this method, see my explanation on this Ask The Pros episode starting at timestamp 20:45.
