At 4:30 AM ET on April 12th, 1861, a burst of light rose from James Island in the Charleston Harbor.
The light sang into the air, floated in an arch over the water, and burst in a fire of lights and sparks over a fortress in the middle of the harbor.
But this was no mere firecracker.
The burst of light was a mortar shell.
The installation on James Island was Fort Johnson.
And the fortress in the middle of Charleston Harbor was Fort Sumter, the last Union holdout in the recently seceded state of South Carolina.
Though this particular shot was just a signal shot, it was the first shot of the bloodiest conflict in American history, the American Civil War, which would rage from that moment on for four years minus three days.
If you visit Ft. Sumter today, which I had the incredible privilege of doing on Monday, you won’t see the 50-foot-high walls that once stood there, because the strategically crucial stronghold was shelled repeatedly by both of the belligerents in the Civil War, ultimately leading to its near-destruction.
But the changed landscape reinforces a sense that this is the last place you’d ever expect to be the start of something so significant.
Sometimes, the “first shot” comes out of nowhere.
Certainly, tensions were mounting at Ft. Sumter, and there was a general sense that something was coming. But what? And when?
When Major Robert Anderson snuck his troops from the less-defendable Ft. Moultrie on Sullivan’s Island across the water to Ft. Sumter on the night of December 26th of the previous year — just six days after South Carolina seceded — there was little doubt that while peaceful, this was a decisive military action.
And in the four months of tense diplomacy, blockades, and brinkmanship between his evacuation and that first shot on April 12th, nobody had any doubt where this was headed.
And yet, the shot on the morning of April 12th caught the soldiers garrisoned at Fort Sumter largely by surprise.
As I stood atop the once imposing fortress, being blown around by strong winds on an otherwise serene, sunny day, I couldn’t help but think how that fateful morning at Ft. Sumter feels a lot like the markets do lately.
Things have been tense for a while now. I think we all have a feeling that the other shoe is going to drop — maybe in a good way, maybe in a bad.
After yesterday’s rally and today’s subsequent drop, we still don’t know what’s going to happen next.
And any day, any time, almost anywhere, a shot could ring out into the distance that changes everything.
One potential catalyst could be Wednesday’s Fed meeting, which is why I’m calling together a team of our top experts to help you get prepared for what comes next in the markets — even if that’s something we don’t like.
They’ll be sharing their top trading ideas and key mindset shifts trades need to lock in on right now.
And it’ll all kick off LIVE on Wednesday @ 12:00 PM ET — RSVP here.
There’s a happy coda to the Fort Sumter story.
On April 14th, 1865, four years exactly after the Fort was first surrendered into Confederate hands after a 36-hour siege, the same Major Robert Anderson returned to the Fort with the very flag he had taken down in the first place.
This time, it wasn’t mortar shells that sang in the background, but a brass band celebrating the ceremonial end of the Civil War.
The noble commander, celebrated for his steadfastness, patience, and heroism in the face of overwhelming odds, got to bring an end to the saga he unwillingly started four years earlier, navigating safely through a storm that claimed around 650,000 lives.
Fortunately, even in a worst-case scenario, the stakes of a market downturn are much lower.
But if there is a storm on the horizon, we’ll be here to help you navigate safely through it.
To your prosperity,
Stephen Ground
Editor-in-Chief, ProsperityPub
