Winners and Losers of the Coming Trade War: What Investors Need to Know

by Chris Pulver | Mar 18, 2025

LIVE at Noon ET on Wednesday: Six of our top experts will share their trade ideas, expectations for what the Fed will do next and more!

The market has plenty to deal with right now — rate cuts, a potential recession and whether this correction turns into something worse. But there’s another wildcard investors can’t ignore…

The escalating trade war.

April 2 is a key date for retaliatory tariffs between the U.S., Europe, Canada and Mexico. If tensions escalate, entire industries could see major disruptions. Some sectors will take a hit while others may quietly benefit.

The Biggest Losers

Industrials (XLI) and Materials (XLB) could be in serious trouble. The U.S. has already slapped tariffs on steel and aluminum, and if retaliation ramps up, companies with global supply chains could feel the squeeze.

Alcoa (AA) is already under pressure despite rising materials prices, which says a lot about sentiment in the sector.

Manufacturers that depend on exports are another red flag. Caterpillar (CAT) and Deere (DE) could see shrinking demand if major trade partners start pushing back. Autos are also on the chopping block.

If tariffs hit the industry, Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) will be forced to pass rising costs onto consumers at the worst possible time.

Who Comes Out Ahead?

Companies that benefit from protectionism or reduced foreign competition could gain the upper hand. Domestic steelmakers like Nucor (NUE) might get a boost if imported steel remains expensive.

Certain agricultural players could also benefit if tariffs limit foreign competition, giving domestic food producers more market share.

Defense stocks could be another bright spot. Rising geopolitical tension tends to push military spending higher, which would be a win for Lockheed Martin (LMT) and Northrop Grumman (NOC).

Meanwhile, if energy exports get tangled in tariff disputes, U.S. oil and gas companies like ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) might see increased demand at home, even if price volatility kicks in.

This trade war isn’t just noise — it has real consequences for the market. If supply chains get disrupted and costs rise, expect earnings revisions and sector rotations.

The winners and losers are already shaping up, but with uncertainty running high, investors should be focused on defense and avoiding the names most likely to get hit.

I’ll see you in the markets.

Chris Pulver
Chris Pulver Trading

Follow along and join the conversation for real-time analysis, trade ideas, market insights and more!