Editor’s Note: Yesterday, Geof Smith gave us some HUGE insights into what could be the golden age of nuclear investing. Check out his presentation here (it’s FREE)
Hey y’all,
Today, I’m going to tell you about a huge election opportunity I think you should know about!
And I’m not trying to sell you anything or send you trade alerts, I just think this is a unique phenomenon that our traders need to know about!!
It’s pretty insane honestly.
Over the last couple of weeks, I’ve been helping Tom Busby do a little research about trading the election — something he’s done for decades…
And he uncovered something that is really really cool.
He calls it a “White House Wave.”
And it turns out that every election since 1996 (at least), there’s been a 10-14 day surge in the markets in one direction or the other.
And it’s got nothing to do with who wins, Republican or Democrat, bear market or bull market, or any of that noise.
Let’s look back at 1996…
For weeks before the election, the bears and bulls were duking it out, and the market was going nowhere…
And if you’re thinking: “well, that must mean it was a tightly-contested election like we’re seeing right now,” think again!
The race between Bill Clinton and Bob Dole was never remotely close!
But it didn’t matter, because much like we’re seeing right now, the markets were soft going into election day…
But then, the day after the election…
The markets POPPED, breaking out of the channel they’d been in for 10 days or more!
And what came next was what Tom calls a “White House Wave!”
Look at how high the markets surged, all the way into December1
The S&P 500 ended up roaring higher, around 10% in 14 days, matching its average yearly output! Crazy!
Four years later, the exact opposite happened!
The markets were actually trying to climb higher above election day, but they couldn’t break out above resistance.
Then, on election night, the bottom dropped out…
From then on, the markets sank like a stone for two weeks!
That would have created tons of opportunities for short trades to the downside, or buying up puts that would have been red hot!
And again, we’ve seen this SAME TREND play out in every election since as well!
In 2004…
2008 and 2012 saw BIG moves to the downside each time…
But 2016 and 2020 were the opposite, huge bullish breakouts!
Eerily similar charts!
Now, I don’t have a crystal ball, maybe this is the year we do break the trend. But this research shows us one of the most compelling predictable trading opportunities I’ve seen.
From everything I’ve seen in over three decades, the markets will pick a STRONG direction on the day after the election, and continue in that direction for 10-14 days or more!
So pay close attention.
The election is a pressure valve in more ways than one… but it might just be THE catalyst that moves the markets.
And either way, upside or downside, there will be tons of trading opportunities.
To your prosperity,
— Stephen Ground
Editor in Chief, ProsperityPub
P.S. I’d be remiss if I didn’t shout out TBUZ, who is the brilliant trader behind these insights! If you do want to know more about how he’ll play the White House Wave in 2024, check out his briefing here.