69 days to go

by | Aug 27, 2024

Hey y’all,

The Presidential Election is officially fewer than 70 days away. In just over two months, America will have elected a new President, whether it’s a second term for former President Trump or a first for Vice President Harris.

Presidential elections are paradigm-shifting events for the global economy and for foreign relations. 

And regardless of your personal preferences or expectations, as a trader, you need to be prepared for every outcome.

So I asked our experts what they personally are watching ahead of the election.

A couple of our experts are political junkies. A couple of them could barely care less about who is in the White House. But all of them are focused on bringing you the market analysis you need to stay ahead.

So here’s what each of them said…

Here’s what I’m expecting from the election: 

If Trump wins, gold will pop up, the dollar will decline, and interest rates will drop. 

If Harris wins, gold will drop, the dollar will go up, and interest rates will go up.

Geof has an interesting take on the fallout of the election.

Common sense might suggest that rate cuts, which are looking likely to start soon under the Biden/Harris Administration, would continue if Harris is re-elected.

But it could be too much, too soon. And the political pressure for rate cuts will dissipate after the election.

Trump will surely continue to put the pressure on Jerome Powell and the Fed to slash interest rates down towards nothing, as he did in his first term with a lot of success until the pandemic crisis.

Harris likely would not have that same cutthroat approach.

And our leading gold expert notes that the price of gold will likely go higher (with a corresponding hit to the value of the dollar) under a second Trump Administration.

He’s not alone in that thought, either…



^ I agree with Geof actually – I think that Trump loves a red hot economy with his name attached to it and he’ll pull all strings to make it happen (non-biased opinion) vs Kamala won’t put the pressure on.

Graham doubled down on Geof’s projections, and elaborated that Trump will pull strings to stimulate the economy in a way that Vice President Harris will not. 

That’s likely true.

The Biden Administration certainly has not featured the day-to-day bully pulpit campaigning on Twitter and elsewhere that became such a feature during Trump’s stay in the White House.

So it’s fair to expect Trump to play a more active role in the economy going forward as well.


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I think if the price of oil pops, Vice President Harris loses.  If the price of oil drops, she wins.  If the price of oil hovers, it’s a coin flip.  Might be as simple as that.

Jeffry argues that the price of oil, which plays a huge role in day-to-day life for the everyday American, will be a major bellwether for the outcome of the election. 

That makes sense.

The gas pump became one of the first big controversies of the Biden Administration after prices spiked early in his administration. Remember the “I Did That” stickers you’d see on pumps across America?

Prices have stabilized a bit since then, but they are still nowhere near even the high prices we saw during the Trump Administration.

If costs remain sky-high for most folks, they will continue to be a negative drag on the Harris campaign, and Trump can keep pointing to “life was better four years ago” as his main campaign slogan.

Jeffry might be onto something here.

 

IF Trump wins, I think it’s a unique scenario. Lots of other candidates have run on platforms like “make big oil pay their share” or other messaging that would seem to target specific stocks and sectors. To me, this is different because all of those past candidates have been establishment folks who are pretty captured once they win.

I think RFK/Trump would actually go after big pharma(ceuticals), big ag(riculture), etc. How much of a dent could they actually put in them? I don’t know. But I think stuff like getting bills passed such that only 18+ can be prescribed Ozempic isn’t a far stretch.

But I actually think it’s bigger than that. Forget the legislative side and just consider the “mood of the nation”… If they perceive that the leadership they voted in is in firm opposition to big pharma and big ag, I think that matters without a bill even being introduced. The populists like Rogan and Musk have already excited millions of people on these issues so the idea that the supreme chancellor (I mean POTUS) would back those ideas with real authority, in my mind, gives them momentum either way.

Nathan actually shared a similar post in his FREE Telegram channel (which you should sign up for here) over the weekend, which first prompted me to ask our experts this question.

It’s super fascinating to me to think about.

He thinks healthcare stocks will be in the crosshairs if the Trump team wins with RFK Jr. on board. 

RFK, the author of a 2021 book called Real Anthony Fauci: Bill Gates, Big Pharma, and the Global War on Democracy and Public Health, is an outspoken critic of Big Pharma, and has taken aim at the weight loss “wonder drug” Ozempic in the past.

Ozempic makes up 41% of Novo Nordisk (NVO)’s sales. If the use of that drug was curtailed or banned in any significant way, it would have a huge impact on that ticker. And other pharmaceutical companies would surely be in the crosshairs as well.

No such direct challenges would likely come from a Harris Administration, though the pharma sector might face indirect threats from insurance restructuring and other public health policies.

There’s a lot to think about with the election on the way. Hopefully, these insights from our experts give you a few specific ways to focus your prognosticating and, more importantly, your trading in the 69 days we have left until November 5th.

To your prosperity,

— Stephen Ground

Editor in Chief, ProsperityPub

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