Yesterday we had an amazing NVDA earnings roundtable event.
I hope you were one of the over 2,000 traders who joined us for some part of our three-hour action-packed session, where our traders gave away their top real money trade ideasahead of NVDA’s earnings call.
If you missed out, you can catch the full replay here.
But before you do that, I thought I’d share a few of the biggest insights I took away from the event — just a taste of everything that folks shared, but these stuck out to me as some of the BIG takeaways.
1) Nate Tucci — “There is no ‘AI Bubble’”
Nate made a point that I absolutely resonated with, although it might shock you at first.
He said “I think it’s impossible that AI is a bubble — the only question is whether NVDA is Google or Pets.com.”
He’s casting back to March 2000, when the vaunted “dot com bubble” burst and sent overvalued stocks like Pets.com spiraling into the history books.
His point was, it isn’t that investors were overvaluing the internet.
In reality, they were actually undervaluing the internet by 100xor more — with no idea how much it would actually transform the world.
The market actors overhyped certain stocks in the short term, but there’s no question that the top companies in A.I. now (just like the Amazons and the Googles back during the rise of the internet) will go on to become some of the top companies in the world.
The only real question is whether NVDA remains one of those companies — if I had to put my guess on it, I’d say yes.
2) Kane Shieh — “Options aren’t 50/50”
Kane made a really great point about betting on options at earnings.
A lot of people talk about earnings trades as a gamble or a coin flip — you’re guessing on direction, and sometimes you’re right, sometimes you’re wrong. It’s a “50/50” proposition, right?
Well, Kane pointed out that actually isn’t correct.
It’s “50/50” if you’re buying stock — where the results of the move will be muted either way.
But if you’re trying to trade earnings for an explosive overnight move, it’s actually less than 50/50.
That’s because you have to guess correctly both on direction AND magnitude.
That means that the odds are always at least slightly against you.
If a stock is at $120, and you bet on a move to $125, and the stock pops, but only to $124, you’ve still gotten your bet wrong.
That doesn’t mean you can never trade earnings directionally, it’s just a reminder to consider all the variables before you rush into a position that might not work out in your favor.
3) Graham Lindman — “Extreme fear might mean it’s time to buy”
Graham explained that even despite market sentiment, he’s bullish on stocks right now over the next 90 days or so.
CapEx spending is still at all-time highs, and Apple is still on the sidelines (meaning even more money could flood into the markets).
But Graham shared that one of his favorite “contrarian” buy signals is actually the CNN fear/greed index:
He says when we hit the “Extreme Fear” section, which we did yesterday, it’s generally a good time to buy.
It might seem counterintuitive but it’s right in line with Warren Buffett’s famous trading advice. So it might be a good time to pay close attention.
4) Jack Carter — “Bet on the jockey”
To close out, Jack Carter shared an analogy from his childhood going to the horse track with his Uncle John.
Jack would bet on the shiniest horse, but his uncle told him: “bet on the jockey.”
Jack’s a huge believer in Jensen Huang, the “jockey” behind NVDA’s success — and that’s why NVDA is the #1 stock in his portfolio.
But he’s not playing it the way you might expect, which is how over the last two months, he was able to generate a staggering amount of premium (over $20k) on his huge portfolio — even while DeepSeek crushed NVDA stock last month.
Now, NVDAs earnings ended up being more of a dud than expected — as I write this, the stock is more-or-less sideways, down slightly from an elevated open.
But for Jack, that’s a perfect outcome, thanks to his NVDA blueprint.
This morning, I sat down with him for a special follow-up session for the roundtable to see exactly how he’s reacting in the aftermath of NVDA earnings.
Tap here to catch a replay of that session
To your prosperity,
Stephen Ground
Editor-in-Chief, ProsperityPub
